I found this trade fascinating because you could definitely see the outlines of what each team wanted to get. During the newest episode of the Best Podcast in Baseball, SNY's baseball reporter Andy Martino talked about how Carrasco was important to the deal from the Mets standpoint because they were looking at a free agent pitcher that would command about the same salary over the next three years, or maybe more, and clearly getting out from that salary commitment was important to Cleveland.
Let's get into this question, because it's fun, and it also comes with disclaimer: Remember that what a team asks from one team is different than what it asks from another; there have been times when teams have not moved off of wanting Carlos Martinez or Oscar Taveras or Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals, regardless of what they eventually get from another team ...
I like to look at trades in terms of dollars moving and control years.
Carrasco $41m for 3 years of control.
Lindor $20+m for 1 year of control.
Draft pick value as comp for Lindor’s FA.
Rosario $2m-ish and 3 years of control.
Andre Gimenez minimum salary and 5 years of control
Josh Wolf prospect, six years of control
Isaiah Greene prospect, six years of control.
So, Mets now have $60m (with some relief) for four years of control.
Cleveland is now spending less than $3m for 20 years of control.
That's a lot of years of control on one side of the equation, and the Cardinals haven't made that kind of deal all that often. Think back to the Matt Holliday trade, and that might be the last time they put that many years of control into a offer for a one year return. And they were super-optimistic they'd resign him.
Even the Goldschmidt deal didn't have that many years of control.
So, let's look for what a similar deal would look like from the Cardinals.
DeJong is the closest to Rosario that the Cardinals have in the sense of a starter at shortstop with control, but he's guaranteed $22 million over the next three years (including buyouts on team options), and that doesn't balance the money for Cleveland. So, it's more likely that it would be Tommy Edman (five years of control, not yet arbitration). If Edman is the Rosario in the deal, then I don't have a sense of who the Cardinals' Gimenez would be. They don't have that shortstop prospect on the cusp, not like the two Mets have already been, Likely would take one of the third basemen the Cardinals have -- Mendoza? Or, Gorman? The other two are top 10 prospects, so you're likely talking a mix of major-league ready pitcher to compensate the lack of a shortstop (Gomber, Ponce de Leone, Oviedo?) and then to lineup the last top-10 piece a Jhon Torres, who Cleveland traded the Cardinals, or ... Tre Fletcher. That would lineup right.
Still not quite sure how the Cardinals match the answer for Cleveland at SS. But that adds up to minimal salary commitments -- and 22 years of control in return. It gives you a sense.