Cardinals chat: Derrick Goold takes your Cardinals questions at 1 p.m. Monday

Cardinals chat: Derrick Goold takes your Cardinals questions at 1 p.m. Monday

Bring your Cards questions and comments to a live chat with Derrick Goold at 1 p.m. Monday.

    Curious, as complicated as the Arenado deal was to hammer out, do you think there is anyway the Cardinals could have acquired him if he had been healthy in 2020 and had his normal dominant season? Would the Cardinals have pulled the trigger on him if they had to pay top dollar and Nolan opted out of his contract with the Rockies after this year?
  • The more I come to understand the motivations here -- it sure seems like the Cardinals could have made the move, yes, but it would have looked different financially for the Rockies. Arenado wanted out. He requested a trade. He pushed for a trade. And Colorado thought he might opt out and leave them with nothing but a draft pick. They said that in the press conference -- and that reasoning makes more sense coming out of a normal year, a gangbuster year for him -- and not entirely the case coming out of a shortened season with zero ticket revenue. What strikes me is that the Rockies moved him out of fear for him sticking around -- and the cost that would leave them to pay in the out years. 
    It has just become clear in the months since that deal that the Arenado was going to push for a trade -- and whether that happened before this spring, or closer to the trade deadline ... hard to tell. More likely that the deal happens before spring training, as it did.
    Derrick,
    Isn't some of the 'Get the Call Right' getting the rule right? The rule book is extensive and I'm sure umpires are unable to recall every rule in split second decisions. It seems that the call re: Williams and the Mets walk-off HBP were clearly opportunities for someone to step in and get the call right in line with the rules. Replay seems to be needed as much for if a ball is fair or foul as much as did the call uphold the rule book. Shoot, the Home Plate Umpire for the Mets admitted as much after the game he got the call wrong.
    Both things could be solved by replay as you suggest, yes. No harm in that. Umpires turn to their peers all the time to confer and discuss and assure they're applying the rule correctly. Yes, that was missing from the Mets game. The umpire had accountability, owned the mistake, and that's always a positive after a mistake.
    Kwang Hyun Kim is taking BP with the starters.
    Miles Mikolas threw a bullpen at Busch this afternoon.
    Why do the Cardinals always lag behind in releasing the lineups?
    They enjoy toying with us.
    Is it to crazy to envision a scenario where the Cards take Carp's $2M buyout, add $2-3M in base salary, and sprinkle it with incentives for 2022? I am starting to be concerned about how committed they are to him, so why would they let a Cardinal-lifer finish his career somewhere else when they clearly believe there is more in the tank?
    I don't understand why they would do this, not at the moment, and I'm sure you knew that and just asked this question for a little bit of performance art.
    Derrick: Do you know if at some point in the near future there will be a revisiting of baseball blackout policies? I do my part by subscribing to the MLB.tv Cardinals season package since I do not live in St. Louis any more, but I got so many games blacked out. I live in Charlotte, NC, but I get ATL, WASH, and CINCY all overlapping and blacked out. That's a nice chunk of games. It's to the point that I don't want to subscribe anymore, and I don't think baseball wants fewer fans, but they sure seem to be playing good defense against those who want to spend money to follow their teams.
  • Aside .. lineup talk ...
    "Catcher is a little bit of a layup -- it's Yadi," Shildt on his lineup. Rest of the lineup. Carpenter to 2B, Williams to LF, and Edman is out in RF.
    "Try to find the best combination."
    To your question re: blackouts. I cannot tell you with any bit of certainty that there's going to be a change, or even that there's momentum for a change. Here's what I can tell you: Baseball is obviously aware of the criticism, and baseball is aware of the MLB deserts out there caused by the blackout policy. What seems to be on the horizon given the rights deals that are discussed in baseball is some kind of streaming access, maybe Netflix style for example, that erases those blackouts and brings revenue in a different way. It's clear around baseball (and probably in baseball) that the blackout policy is outdated, a relic, and there is pressure being put on them publicly to change, but I cannot say how quickly that will change, and only that it will be hopping to another revenue stream, one they think will be richer, and then a change. It will be overdue.
    Why is it, in your words, "odd" to ask if the Cards will receive money for Fowler's injury. After all, it's money which could be used to get another good player.
    by Why is it, in your words, "odd" to ask if the Card 4/12/2021 9:00:16 PM
    Fair question. And perhaps I could have explained that better. One, I received many emails and Twitter replies just asking me about the insurance policy and if the Cardinals will get money back -- nothing about Fowler, or his career, or if he'll play again, only on the cash the Cardinals could get back. That struck me as odd. Two, where is the evidence that any money they get back will be invested into a new player, or a player? There just isn't. And it's not that much money.
    How would you compare Johan Oviedo to Jack Flaherty circa 2017/18 when Jack was getting his footing in the big leagues? Good fastball, 2 usable secondary pitches, at least - is additional control the only thing keeping him from being a #3 starter or better?
    Interesting comparison. It's there for sure. The slider and athleticism is what brings them together. Oviedo has more velocity, more margin for error as a result. Flaherty has more feel and command of four pitches -- that's what stood out for him at the young age and when he arrived in the majors. He came with a polished selection of pitches, and the steady delivery that flows from his athleticism. Oviedo had to get there. He is closer. He doesn't have four pitches at his fingertips today, but he's closer than he was last year, and that changeup does play. We'll see how it does in his next outing. There are definitely elements of overlap between the Oviedo of today and Flaherty of his debut -- and you can see how quickly Flaherty adapted to the level because of the pitches and consistency he had, and why the Cardinals are trying to quicken that learning curve for Oviedo.
    Carpenter is batting seventh for the Cardinals today.
    Thanks for the chat, Derrick!

    Do you think the current state of vaccine availability and fan capacity will have an impact on how aggressive the Cardinals are to improve midseason vs. waiting for the offseason? Will in-season trades need to be financially balanced, or do you think the FO will be willing to add payroll for a SP or OF who could make a big difference?
    They want to be in a position where, if necessary, they'll be able to add payroll for the short-term addition at the trade deadline. The ability to sell tickets will only make that more palatable if they get the chance. But that is something they have discussed. The short-term addition that makes them stronger for the final months of the season and costs them more financially -- because that will mean they have to get up less as a prospect. They'd prefer that kind of deal than a cash-neutral move that costs more prospects.
  • When the minor league season open does the team need to send Knizner to AAA to get reps and replace him with one of the other catchers? Yadi is showing that he is not slowing down or going to concede anything so it seems like Knizner being on the 25 man roster is a waste. Someone else can take the 5 ABs every 2 weeks.
    That is on the table, yes. The Cardinals are not keen to have that discussion at the moment for obvious reasons -- why prepare Knizner for a demotion that may not happen until it does? -- but they know that moving him down will get him quality, consistent reps to be ready and stay sharp. There is one big wrinkle to this plan. Who replaces him as the backup? It would have to be Sanchez. He's the available, at Class AAA, option on the 40-man roster.
    To add to DCG's comment - I live in Northern Indiana and have MLBtv as well. I get my television via Hulu streaming, which no longer carries any of the Fox (Bally) Sports affiliates. Can't watch anything when it involves division rivals Chicago, Cincinnati, nor when they play the White Sox or Tigers. Really sucks, especially when wanting to "grow the sport"
    Agreed. Baseball has withdrawn from a grassroots audience -- by the these TV deserts and with the retreat from such minor-league homes as Johnson City, Tenn. There will be fans lost -- and possibly players lost from this generation -- as a result. It's shortsighted, to me.
    Situational hitting :A strategy in baseball used by batters in an inning, most often with men on base, to either advance runners or score runners by the most efficient or effective means possible.

    Do the cards go over this in spring training ? I see many on our team always trying to hit a 5 run homer when all we need is a single to score 1 or 2 runs
    They do. So much. Yes. And they do it in BP, too, during the season. And they do it in Ball Talk. And they build games around it in spring training. And they have contests for doing it successfully. It's pretty standard in spring. What has changed is the philosophy across baseball -- and you can see this with teams like the Mets, Braves, and on and on -- that hitting the ball hard works in situational ball too. That moves the runner over. That moves the runner in. And so on. Contact is part of the execution. When teams talk about hard contact, contact is part of the goal. So what you're seeing is not isolated to the Cardinals. It's just that other teams may be executing it better than they are, at least anecdotally.
    Hello... I'm a 68 year baseball fan. I"m also a retired math teacher so love stats and love the "creation" of new stats to analyze the game. BUT, since I've spent 68 years watching baseball and studying baseball cards, I don't know how to "immediately evaluate" some of the new statistics. For example, I know, immediately that if someone is a .300 hitter, that's good; .225 is bad, .350 elite. A sub 3.00 ERA is elite, 4.00 average, 5.00 terrible.

    Can you give a good "rule of thumb" for quick recognition on some of the newer stats to help an old guy like me? What a good OPS and OPS+, a good WAR? What are the newer pitching stats to pay attention to? Those aren't mentioned as much as the others.
    Great question. Let's start with one of my favorite phrases -- a 3-4-5 hitter. That is someone who hits .300, has an on-base percentage of .400, and slugs better than .500. If you find someone who does those things, that is an elite, top shelf MVP like hitter. That's a standout hitter. Add in a .600 slugging percentage and you're talking incredible. So, if that's the top of the top, then dial back the numbers from there.
    It's good to look for an .800 OPS. It's better to have an .850 OPS. How hitters get there matters but if you look for that .800 OPS and .850 OPS you've got a good start to judging what production is good. .800 is good, start getting closer to .900 and above and you're talking about elite.
    Exit velocity? Well, go with 95 or above is the target. And anything better than 100 gets your attention, and 110 or better stands out with the best of them.
    Do any of the writers ask the cards "you said if you hit you play" so why does carp, deyoung, bader, etc play? They had years to show whoever they are, the newbies are measured in games not years.
  • Yes, that has come up. It's when you see the answers about bad luck and exit velocity.
    When Mozeliak answered questions about the Arozarena trade he owned the mistake. At the time I asked what that meant in practical terms. All I can tell so far is that it’s paralyzed them with fear about making another mistake. Is there something I’m missing?
    That's definitely part of it. I asked Mozeliak about that earlier this spring -- about changes they made to identify or audit or consider talent within the organization as a result of Arozarena and Voit and some others that had success elsewhere. He said the takeaway from them was the lack of opportunity that Arozarena got, not the instruction or use or development at the higher levels. Clearly that is on their mind though. They've made one move already in the past few years with a hitting coach when they noted that players stalled at the big league level, and acquired players did not meet past success. Ozuna would now qualify for that, though the Cardinals push back on that argument when I make it. I think we'll see some change to how they evaluate what a coach does to help a player reach the production that the front office has for a player based on their projections.
    Do you think baseball should have moved the All Star game out of Atlanta because of politics?
    I worry about the precedent that has been set on both sides -- it opens Major League Baseball to have every city they visit everywhere picked apart for what might be something critics can now argue they support and detractors now say they must move. Major League Baseball needs to tread lightly but speak firmly and clearly. I welcome a transparent explanation of the move, and what MLB is going to do to act upon this precedent, so in decisions to come we're not vetting ballparks and cities for what might move MLB to relocate. The new voting laws in Georgia should be debated, for sure, and I am eager for that dialogue because I fear that it's been reduced to buzzwords and misdirection, when there are oversight elements of the bill that need to be explore more -- by critics of the bill and defended by its advocates. 
    To your question, I do not have a problem with MLB making a move "because of politics".
    My hope is that Major League Baseball would become part of the conversation and part of the bonds of a community. It only gets there by not making this cosmetic move, but a substantive one.
    Has Shildt given any explanation for not giving Nogowski a start in the outfield? For an outfield not contributing offensively, finding playing time for the guy who hit his way onto the roster seems like a no-brainer.
    Yes, he feels he has better options when it comes to the holistic view of the position -- that is offense and defense. That's his explanation. Could still see him out there when the matchup on the mound is one that is obvious for him.
    You have made the comment Arenado's chances are " slim to none' he will opt out. I would not be so confident due to:
    1) When he was asked about him being in St. Louis long term he gave almost an identical answer to reporters when with the Rockies when asked about his long term plans " I'm not worried, it will work it self out".
    2) He is from SoCal and has repeated many times he dreamed about playing with the Dodgers growing up They have the money, cache and winning record to make a run at him if they want.
    3) ironically the Dodgers signed Justin Turner to a 2 year contract with a option on their part to renew for 2023. Interesting timing on the Dodgers part huh?
    4) If the Cardinals turn into a rebuild situation by the end of 2022 who do you think he would want to play with the remaining part of his career ?
    If the Cardinals do stumble the next couple of years the allure of the Dodgers is very much out there. Your thoughts?
    1) Sure. That was brought to his attention, and he acknowledged that. And it was also said to him that he cannot be the player who hops around looking for the greener grass. Awareness that he echoed himself and then how he asserted his answer later was noteworthy to me.
    2) He has, yes. And yet he targeted the Cardinals for where he wanted to play. Last I checked, the Cardinals and their fan base were having a bit of a crisis of identify because players weren't coming here, weren't falling in love with the tradition, history, etc. etc., and here's a player who has -- who has come for that purpose, who sought out the Cardinals because of all things the Cardinals think they are, and all things the fans want them to be, and you don't believe it? Huh. Maybe just enjoy the fact that a baseball fan, which Arenado, saw in the Cardinals want you want to see in the Cardinals, too. And that he has publicly and privately that the fans are part of that. Take a compliment.
    3) Turner is 36. That deal had more to do with his age than any grand strategy. The Dodgers wouldn't let 39-year-old Justin Turner get in the way of a better third baseman. Just saying. You outlined the reasons why yourself.
    4) The Cardinals are allergic to "rebuild situation." They've said as much. There is no evidence they or their fan base has the stomach for it.
    Don't give them the excuse or soft landing of a rebuild situation if they struggle these years.
    Those are my thoughts.
    Alright, it's time to shift over to the pre-game coverage for StlToday.com. Incredible set of questions today, right up to the end. And so, so many of them. It's always a good sign when I couldn't keep up with the questions and the Cardinals Chatters never disappoint. The chat will be back here next Monday as the Cardinals head to D.C. for the back end of this home and home with Washington. 
    Check your local listings for time because it's likely Rick Hummel will be your host.
    I'll be starting the travel by air phase of covering the team during the regular season for the first time since 2019. Lots to learn as we all inch closer to normalcy. 
    Aloha. Enjoy the ballgame.
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