Cardinals chat: Derrick Goold takes your questions at 11 a.m. Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to a live chat with Derrick Goold at 11 a.m. Monday
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Kind of. The Cardinals' strikeout rate went in the wrong direction this past season, but not absurdly so. They had a 23.7 percent strikeout rate in 58 games, and that was up from .23.0 percent the previous year in 162 games. Now, they ranked fine. They ranked 16th this season, and they ranked 18th the previous season. The trouble is the company they keep, and the fact they're not getting the power tradeoff at all with that strikeout rate.In 2020, the teams that had similar strikeout rates and a lower slugging percentage than the Cardinals' paltry .371 were the Pirates (.357), Mariners (.370), and Rangers (.364). Not exactly division contenders there. In 2019, the Cardinals' slugging percentage was up to .416 and that ranked 23rd in baseball. But the teams with similar strikeout rates and lower slugging percentages all shared a common theme. They were the Orioles (.415), White Sox (.414), Padres (.410), and Royals (.401) and Giants (somewhere down there). Is there a winning team in that group from 2019? Not a contender ...
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The answer is simple: The Cardinals do not share your opinion of what he offers the team. That's about as clear as I can put it. The Cardinals have a different view, and yes part of that is because they've signed him to an extension and committed dollars to his performance, and they want to get a return on that investment. But the also just have a different opinion.
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Most of the clubs had to bring up anybody this year who could possibly sustain a pulse in the major leagues. The Cards sure did. Those players have already been either entrenched on a roster or passed through waivers. On top of that nobody got to see anybody's prospects on the minor leagues.
Do you think the Rule 5 Draft is going to be a dud this year? -
I do not, no. Some teams will be in the market for low-cost roster fill. That's something to get in the Rule 5 with an eye toward 2022. I think it could be compelling, honestly. But then I like the hidden gems aspect of talent searches. As you can probably tell by how I describe the market as a whole.A lot will depend on the size of rosters, too. Let's get some clarity on that in the near future. As of right now, teams expect 26.
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For years we have felt that the Cardinals had around $50 million per year in dry powder, so over the last 5 years around $250 million total. Where did that all go? Ball Park Village? If not, the Cardinals should be well positioned to take advantage of a rare season of free agent bargains.
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Where are you getting that number from? I've never heard. Sounds curiously made up, honestly. I have never even heard such speculation from officials, MLB sources, agents, anyone -- at all. Ever. And please check back on the lengthy, and I hope detailed answer about the relation between the team and the Ballpark Village. Thank you.
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He was a much better fit and would have been a great, smart add several years ago. Not this time around. Does seem to be, to me, anyway. When the Astros took a run at him a few years ago, it should have given the Cardinals a heads up that he was a good buy, good value, and would have been the player they could use. That didn't happen.
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For the Cardinals? Other than the obvious that George Springer would definitely change the look and feel of this team, and isn't likely to be on their shopping list ... then ... Joc Pederson is in this conversation as an answer to both of your questions. Ben Frederickson has brought up the La Stella idea, and that's interesting, too.
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Derrick, It should almost be impossible for the Cards not to find some offensive improvement this off season. FA alone will amount to every team getting 3-5 players each. Add in the fact of a possible trade or 2 and the team is in a position to look much different quickly. The contracts that need to be offered also are way down, no obligatory 7-10 deal. This seems to really line up as a opportunity for the Cards that aligns with their comfort zone. Shouldn't fans of the team have optimism that a reload is available without a need of a rebuild or even a pause kind of season?
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How much do you think the margin of error in many of the sabermetics analyses will need to be accounted for next year? For example, last year was only a 60-game season, played with a very short ramp-up time, and then in front of no fans. Players will be a year-and-a-half older than their last "normal" season. It seems like the numbers the models will spit out may be prone to more error next year than at any previous time.
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Derrick, earlier you said some teams will just cower in their wallets and cry poor, of which I totally agree. I question if some teams are serious about competing on a regular basis. It's almost as if they try to find excuses on why they weren't competitive. Are some of these rich owners comfortable with just owning a team and all of the ego that goes with it? I've heard of some teams in MLB and NFL who had horrible facilities (not just stadiums) that were obvious turn offs to free agents and in turn a lack of seriousness about being competitive.
And this is my real name. -
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Hi Derrick, hope you and the family had a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Do you ever see a salary cap being discussed in baseball? The Dodgers are starting to look like the Yankees of old and I'd have to imagine, if younger players are wanting a bite of the apple sooner in the next CBA, that will lead some teams to cry "Too poor to compete" despite what the Rays just accomplished. Would love to get your take on whether you see the salary cap as inevitable. -
I don't think it gets very far with baseball, honestly. Not much farther than the luxury tax that was in place before. I can see reasons why owners would want a salary cap, but also why they wouldn't -- because it would mean defining revenues and showing more of what they want to at the moment about how the money is arriving, and in how many waves. Players want the open market, and even with that "open" market, salaries have been subdued. The Rays reaching the World Series seems to disprove your concern. The Padres signing Machado and Hosmer shows a majority of teams have the ability spend. I just don't see the need for a salary cap, or the motivation on either side to seek one.
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Good Monday DG. A left handed outfield bat is a must. Do you see a chance the F.O looks back to Japan or Korean leagues? They have dad luck with pitching lately. Also I don't know how many times you have written to hold ownership and the Front office accountable for their words time and time again. So there's that.....
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Off the radar type move I'd like to see play out: Dealing Mikolas to the Yankees for Clint Frazier; each team deals from their strength and fills a need.
Semi-bargain bin SPs I'd like to see the Cardinals kick the tires on in no particular order:
Waino (obvious)
Paxton
Chris Archer
Jon Gray
Corey Kluber
Collin McHugh
Jimmy Nelson -
Talking to the Yankees about Frazier makes a lot of sense. Dealing Mikolas doesn't make much sense -- not for the Yankees who can just keep Frazier and sign a pitcher at a lower salary to do something just less than Mikolas, but good enough. The discussion is academic with Mikolas anyway. He has a no-trade clause.Kluber is the most interesting non-Cardinal on that list, to me.
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Apparently "Baseball God" doesn't read your stuff enough because I have definitely seen the occasional critique of their decisions, but again, with media literacy being at the heart of this - SHOUT IT FROM THE MOUNTAINTOP - Beat Writers aren't Opinion Columnists and literally their job isn't to give opinions but to report on what the team does, says, and try to explain their processes/rationale - not whether he thinks they are correct! Repeat that like 100 times! It's not that hard! People should understand or be taught this!
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More and more so, for sure. Too often we seek out the information that supports our beliefs -- not informs or challenges them. It's why I try to read as much as I can and even invite people to share links from sources I don't follow or don't trust. I spent a lot of time last week reading links about mask-wearing -- and the best part was it seemed like the people sharing them didn't even bother reading them because in 9 out of 10 the link eventually refuted the person's opinion. Another time, I asked for evidence, and a person shared a link that was a column that just asked a bunch of inflammatory, rhetorical questions that had no facts or evidence.Week in and week out this chat is a great challenge because it makes me consider some things I don't agree with -- and then defend the facts and information I have to rely on.
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Have you heard anyone from the Cardinals suggest that Knizner could play LF when he isn't catching? Do you think that he could handle it? Seems like he runs well enough and must have a decent glove and arm if he's catching, plus he could benefit from getting more AB's when Yadi is catching (assuming Yadi is back). Seems like he can hit major-league pitching. Thanks.
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Mr. Goold: One last comment regarding Matt Carpenter. Given what Carpenter hit in September 2018, had John Mozeliak not jumped the gun and waited until June or July of 2019, there is no way he signs Carpenter to a two-year contract extension for $39 mil in guaranteed money. Agree? -
Correct. But if they waited until the final months of 2019 and saw his production then (as detailed earlier), then they exercise that option and likely talk to him about an extension, and here they are. Maybe less money, same commitment. Toothpaste and tube and all that.
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Hello, Mr. Goold. I missed your "Travel with Derrick" story. Do you have a link to it, please. Also, you mentioned that the Cardinals own 40 percent of Fox Sports Midwest. So, if the Bally-FSM-Sinclair deal goes through as planned, the Cardinals would get 40 percent of that revenue from gambling? And, yet, MLB remains determined to continue to punish Pete Rose for gambling. Doesn't seem right. Thanks for your time and doing the chats.
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I agree that it doesn't seem right. Baseball must reconcile its treatment of Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose if this goes through as advertised. I would argue they already need to do so given the FanDuel stuff that exists at all ballpark, and the MGM Grand partnership/sponsorship that will likely manifest in an awards show of some type in future seasons, all live from Las Vegas! From a casino in Las Vegas!The precise breakdown of the revenue would be based on the rights deal, and what is shared revenue for teams. Some of that will go into the community purse to be split evenly between the 30 clubs. The Cardinals would get an added portion as a part owner of the broadcast outlet, yes. It's not quite a double-dip, but it's beyond the split, for sure.Here's the link to my tails from the road, covering the Cardinals in 2020, from Thanksgiving's newspaper:
Going the distance with Cardinals: Scenes of history, hope through 14 states, 7,168 miles
STLtoday.comPost-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold hit the road to cover an unusual season from the ground up with a mask on, through a country on the edge. -
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Alright, a quick look at the clock, and I've run out of time. Thanks for the excellent post-Turkey questions. No one was still napping this week. Lots of interesting topics discussed, and challenging questions galore. Those are the best type. Brace for news this week. There will be some activity in baseball, guaranteed, and there will be stories ahead for the Cardinals. We've got some features brewing, longform stories, kicking around, and issues that have to be explored in print and online. I see opinions in the future from the columnists, too. And there will continue to be a new Best Podcast in Baseball every week, even during the offseason. Content ahoy!I'll be back at the keyboard next week. And there will be more to discuss.For sure.Bet on it.