Cardinals chat: Derrick Goold takes your questions at 11 a.m. Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to a live chat with Derrick Goold at 11 a.m. Monday
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If it's January, that means it's still December, and if it's Monday that means it's Cardinals Chat Day. Per tradition, the first baseball chat of the new year will also feature my Hall of Fame ballot. So, I'll post that ASAP, and already there are questions filling up the inbox about it.Hope everyone had a healthy start to the New Year. Enough prelude.I've got The Beatles playing.First, the ballot. Then the inquisition. Bring it on. -
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Some of these "mistakes" just happened, so this is a big offseason for them to reveal how they have learned from them. The question you ask sets the stage for how the 2021 Cardinals will be evaluated -- and that includes the moves they've yet to make. They need to evaluate well, and then unlock the talent they acquire. If there isn't improvement in the offense this year -- from returning players, from young players, from imported players -- then there will likely be changes in how the Cardinals approach their offense, and that will mean changes in philosophy and personnel.
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If there was a "last guy on" to the ballot, for me, it was Abreu. I spent a lot of time looking at his numbers and trying to compare them to other RFs, OFs, and hitters who I have voted for. I wanted to be consistent, and if Abreu came up nearby Sheffield or ahead of Sheffield then was it consistent to vote for one and not the other?You're right, Abreu does not sing out at first glance. He rarely got support for the MVP. Compared to his peers, he wasn't a regular in the All-Star Game. And there's this anecdotal sense that he was a power hitter or had good power numbers because he once dramatically won a Home Run Derby.I went looking for how often Abreu was one of the best offensive players in baseball, and compared that to Sheffield.In Sheffield's 16-year stretch as a force, he was top 25 in WAR four times. Abreu, by the same measure, was top 25 in WAR six times, and he was 26th time, and those all came in the first seven of the 13 years I considered the heart of his career as a regular. Defense helped, and defense curiously skewers Sheffield. Something seems off there, but that's another conversation.Sheffield was a top 30 offensive player in 12 of those 16 years.By the same measure, Abreu was top 30 six times in the selected 13.Sheffield was a ferocious offensive player, and stands above Abreu. It was at that time that I felt, OK, I've got a good sense of the distinction between the two. So then I started looking around at Abreu's total career, and right before leaving him off the ballot, I considered two things:-- His rare blend of doubles, homers, steals, and other offensive numbers that make him a rarity alongside other Hall of Famers like Biggio and Rickey Henderson, and, yes, Bonds. The same names kept coming up, and while Abreu was behind them -- far behind in several cases -- it was hard to ignore how far ahead Abreu was in this jumbalaya of offensive numbers than his peers.-- And, lastly, I didn't want to see his name drop off the ballot. I checked the ballot tracker and it seemed like that's possible, and more and more as I walked around my neighborhood I didn't want his name to drop off, not this year. I wanted to buy more time for my own thinking, and could do that with a vote.That was the thought process. Not the obvious candidate, but by peeling the onion and then recognizing the 5-percent threat, it seemed like a vote I could defend.
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Let's start with this: He was suspended twice -- twice! -- for the use of performance enhancing drugs. That's a hard hurdle for me to clear. I can make better use of that spot on the ballot, or leave it open. Or, in the coming years there may be other candidates that force me to consider how to consider suspensions, and whether or not the ballot is consistent. That is one of the next challenges I'll have to face.
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I have consistently said that if the Hall put transgressions on the plaque and I had a chance I would vote for Rose. It should be part of his career that he was banned from baseball, and the same goes for Shoeless Joe. They belong in the Hall. Their transgressions belong on the plaque, too.
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It has been my approach that I use the sportsmanship clause as a tool provided to me by the Hall to cut my ballot down to the 10 maximum. Thus, when I had more than 10 deserving players, I would rank them my "worthiness" of the Hall, and that would mean using all the tools at my disposal. A few years ago, the choice for the final two spots came down to two closers and two players tied to PED use. I chose the closers.Schilling is a tricky case, for sure. And I'm sure someone will ask why I voted for him -- as I have asked myself over and over and over again for about 30 days now.
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That will help. So will clarity on when spring starts. When teams can sell tickets. How many games they can count on playing. And on and on and on. The DH is just one of the many unknowns confronting teams as the new year begins. The virus remains the biggest one -- and all the things it influences, which is everything.
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Absolutely. A lot of consideration given to both. I probably spent most of my time researching and trying to understand the candidacies of Abreu, Wagner, Kent, and Buehrle. The Wagner, Kent, and Abreu studies go back a year, too. These were players that I felt I had to give every consideration for as Hall of Famers. I will admit I have trouble with figuring out Wagner and other closers.During my research I kept coming up with ways to illustrate Rivera's dominance not ways to separate Wagner from the pack. He's got that great career WHIP and great strikeout rate, but he also has fewer than 1,000 innings. Hoffman as about two, three seasons more of innings. I looked at WPA and other similar stats that show how a pitcher influenced a game in high leverage, and kept finding Wagner around Joe Nathan (underrated!) and Jonathan Papelbon (depending on the stat), and thus somewhere behind Hoffman and Rivera. What's the company he keeps there? Are they all Hall of Famers?This year more than any year made me determine where the line is for me between great player and Hall of Fame player, and it sure seems like what studying Kent started then Wagner and Abreu are helping me identify it.
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What do you think about a trade for the Diamondbacks outfielder David Peralta? He hits for a good average, has some power, and bats lefthanded? He also has two years left on a contract that pays him 7.5 million a year. I would offer them one of our young outfielders and a minor league pitcher. As they are sinking deeper in the West division under the Dodgers and Padres they might want to get younger.
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He's a former Cardinal. True story. He was a pitcher in the Cardinals organization before going elsewhere, reinventing himself as an outfielder, and now being someone they should discuss a reunion with. He has been someone the Cardinals have talked about acquiring before. And he's a fit. Worth further discussion.
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I don't vote for Omar Vizquel because I don't think he's worthy of the Hall of Fame. I know that seems harsh, and I don't mean it to be. He had a long career that should be celebrated, and he was a gifted defensive player. I am not convinced that he was the best defensive player at his position of his era. I am convinced that he played for teams loaded with offense that could carry a glove-first shortstop and allow him to improve and accumulate offensive numbers over a long career. Other contemporaries who were good with their gloves didn't have the luxury of a team that could allow a glove-only SS, and they lost playing time for the need of offense. Remember how good Rey Ordonez was?Let's look at some of the numbers.Season with at least 750 total chancesOzzie Smith -- 6Omar Vizquel -- 0Seasons with at least 500 assistsOzzie Smith -- 8David Eckstein -- 1Omar Vizquel -- 0Seasons with at least 450 assistsOzzie Smith -- 11Andrelton Simmons -- 1Rey Ordonez -- 1Derek Jeter -- 2Mark Belanger -- 4Omar Vizquel -- 1David Eckstein -- 1Cesar Izturis -- 1We can discuss how some players -- Eckstein, Vizquel, for example -- spent considerable amount of time on a strikeout/flyball teams. Eckstein's one year of 500 assists came in that year with Grudzielanek at second and a groundball-greedy Cardinals staff. But the raw numbers start to paint a picture.Let's go to the WAR ... and look specifically at defensive WAR, modern-era.Career high for Vizquel on just defensive WAR -- 2.5, per B-R.com.Career high for Ordonez on just dWAR -- 4.0.(And he had a season of 2.6, too)Andrelton Simmons has had six seasons of greater dWAR than 2.5.Six.And a seventh is 2.4.His career-high is 5.0 dWAR, and he's had four of 3.3 dWAR or greater.I bring this up to compliment Simmons as much as explain my vote.
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There isn't an option that stands out, and that's only the beginning of the Cardinals questions for their offense and lineup. There has been some internal discussion about returning Matt Carpenter to the leadoff spot. There has always been an idea that perhaps Tommy Edman moves there, as Wong did. There isn't an obvious answer, and that should concern the Cardinals.
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Well, they could have suddenly stopped using Andrew Miller or tried to lure him onto the injured list or something, but that would have invited a grievance from one of the most influential and outspoken members of the players' union, and the Cardinals might have lost that grievance and had a disgruntled player, who has at every turn been an asset to any team and clubhouse he's been in. So, the choice was to play fast and loose with the competitive aspect of the game, and face loud, skewering criticism for not using a reliever who has experience holding leads. And thus, use meant it vested.With Wong, they had the choice on the option. It was not tied to the field.
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