Cardinals chat: Derrick Goold takes your questions at 11 a.m. Monday

Cardinals chat: Derrick Goold takes your questions at 11 a.m. Monday

Bring your Cards questions and comments to a live chat with Derrick Goold at 11 a.m. Monday

    What is your professional opinion on % chance for the following players being in a Cardinals jersey next season.

    Molina, Wainwright, Wong
    That's the order. Seems like Molina is approaching inevitable. There are some interesting teams that could up the ante and pull off a surprise. Cardinals still have that trump card that he wants two years and he wants to return to the Cardinals, and those stances haven't changed from what I can tell talking to people. 
    Wainwright is less clear.
    The Cardinals told the local media several weeks ago that they are keeping the "door ajar" for Wong's return. He's in line right now to get better offers elsewhere. Obviously the LeMahieu market will influence what those offers look like. Holding pattern. But the percent of change is highest for Molina, coinflip for Wainwright, and less than that for Wong.
    Will you vote for Ortiz and A-rod next year?
    by What did you think of Tim hudson and Mark Buherle? 1/4/2021 5:49:55 PM
  • I have 12 months to think about it. Thank goodness.
    If they will lose more revenue than 2020 with no fans why would they sign Molina or Wainwright simply to lose more money? How many fans would it take to cover Molina and Wainwright?
    Because baseball doesn't intend to have a season with no fans. Period. They want to find a way to have a season that allows for tickets to be sold, and the owners will work to avoid a 162-game schedule with empty ballparks. That's clear. They want to know how many games they can play with fans in the stands and how many fans, and they'll calculate the length of season from there.
    If Carpenter leads off and plays 3rd, how much more pressure does it put on the front office to get more offense from the outfield?
    What's more than enormous? Any offensive revival the Cardinals have -- any improvement they make -- the genesis of it will have to be from the outfield. They need something beyond the 29th or 30th most productive outfield in baseball.
    Did you consider Tim Hudson and Mark Buherle on your HoF ballot?
    I considered every name on the ballot. I read about them. I sorted through their stats. I looked at every single one. Some didn't take long. Some I had a good feeling about before starting the process. But I considered every single one, out of respect for the player getting that far.
    Unless President Biden or governors of AZ or FL declare a national/ State emergency and prohibit the gatherings of people, the CBA is clear, 162 games. The MLB commissioner is limited on his options to reduce the number of games without MLBPA approval.
    He is? This past year there was a 60-game schedule because the commissioner imposed the length of the season. He did that. Remember, the union didn't agree to it. The commissioner imposed it. That was based on a previous agreement hatched in March, and it was power he had. Keep that in mind.
  • Is Matt Carpenter a Cardinals Hall of Famer? He has more career Cardinals WAR than several players already wearing the red jacket, and was a big part of one NL Championship team in 2013
    That will depend on the fans. He'll go to the fan ballot shortly after his retirement, and if the fans give him support, he'll zoom into the Hall of Fame. It will be a long time before his candidacy reaches the Red Ribbon Committee. That will likely be a new group of folks by then ...
    Derrick, you may have answered this before, HOF ballot has me curious. Who are the 3 best players you've ever seen? Is Bonds one of them?
    Interesting question. The three best players I've seen in person and never covered on the beat:
    Rickey Henderson
    Mike Trout
    And, yeah, probably Bonds.
    Wow. That's a hard question to answer. Obviously, I covered Albert Pujols, so I conveniently excluded him from the list by adding the caveat. Carlos Beltran I covered as well, and it's hard to imagine a player ever being better than Beltran was in 2004.
    Pitchers would have to include Greg Maddux and peak Randy Johnson, who just was fantastic to watch pitch. Truly. 
    What a question. I'm going to spend the rest of the day second-guessing myself.
    Were you surprised by Shildt’s assertion that both Gorman and Liberatore could be in the majors in 2021?
    Nope. Part of the messaging that the Cardinals will present this winter.
    I understand the Cardinals are NOT selling any individual game tickets and ticket reps have no information as to the start of spring training much less the start of the season. Don't you think we are 2-3 months MINIMUM out for the start of spring training and looking at a mid May to beginning of June start date at the earliest?
    I don't know. I don't know when the vaccine will be widespread. I don't know when our actions as a culture will help stem the spread of the virus. I don't know when the owners and players will agree on a DH, let alone the length of the season and the salary that will lead to for players.
    I don't know. I don't know.
    And it's not because I haven't asked. It's because, honestly, the commissioner doesn't know these things either. Teams don't know. Players don't know.
    I'm in good company.
    Is it possible that this Cards roster could be in worse shape than even the most negative fans believe? If none of young OFs emerge in '21 what are they left with? An aging Goldy, an inconsistent DeJong, Carlson, and maybe Edman? That's the core?
  • It is not possible that the Cardinals are worse than the most negative fans believe. Have you seen the most-negative opinions? It's not possible to be beneath that.
    Among all the teams where do the Cardinals rank in importance of revenue from fan attendance; the top third, bottom third?
    Top third, and arguably top five in baseball. I've heard that from two officials outside of the Cardinals, including an NL rival. The publicly available information on the Braves would also support this view that the Cardinals are top five.
    Any idea how MLB will look at players opting out for this year? David Price is considering it according to reports.
    That will be negotiated, and given that this year is set to start during a pandemic, it would make sense for them to use the same approach as before. There would be no harm in opting out -- no pay and no service time either for voluntary opt out without preexisting conditions. Seems like the right thing to do -- make the same valve available.
    Why do you leave Sosa off your ballot when you put Sheffield on?
    Fair question. He was a control group of sorts, and the fact that I voted for two RF ahead of him should be addressed. Sosa had a tremendous peak, for sure. And he's got the bulk total of homers that Sheffield does not and Abreu doesn't come close. His peak was not as long as theirs, and his performance in that peak by WAR is strong, and he does slightly above average when it comes to other HOF RF. And RF is the land of giants because there's such remarkable players, like Musial and Aaron for example, raising the average. Even then, according to Jay Jaffe's research, Sosa is 15 wins behind the RF. I am always hesitant to entirely rely on past votes as guidance because I don't always agree with past votes, and if I use that as a foundation for mine it's shifting. I'd rather use my own votes as precedent. So, Edmonds, McGriff, Andruw Jones -- these are some of the hitters I've voted for in the past. And now Sheffield, and Abreu. Sosa's OPS+ is remarkably close to them. He just got there with a five year bonkers run, while both of them, even Abreu, had more length to their time in the top rankings, especially Sheffield. From 1995 to 2002, Sosa hit 400 homers and was a power monster. Still, Sheffield's career OPS ranks 57th all time. Sosa is just outside of the top 100, right there below David Justice. And it's all about the homers. Abreu, as mentioned early, intrigued me for the many-faceted elements of his career, and the fact that the shouldn't slip off. It's possible that he's right there at that line with Sosa for me, and the tiebreaker was the concern he'd drop off. Sheffield, to me, stands beyond both -- the length of time he was an offensive force, the scope of his game, the rates, the compiled numbers, and that's why. Sosa has not vaulted ahead of others for me, or lined up with other outfielders I've voted for in the past, but his is a case that revisit every year. I think it was Joe Posnanski that called Sosa's career "misshapen." I like that. It's not well-rounded or well-lopsided, it's got this one mountainous stretch of performance.
    Under the radar trade possibilities for the Cardinals?
  • I always struggle with this question because it's my job to report things for the paper, and if I save them for the chat I've really messed up. I think the question on Peralta earlier in the chat brought up one name that you could connect the dots. A few other trade options are not free agents via the non-tender. Is Mitch Haniger under the radar? Health is a real question. I'm hesitant to bring him up because he's got some Colorado ties, and I'll be playing to stereotype, but since we've mentioned him before, I will again: Mike Tauchman has to at least be explored the Yankees. Here's hoping that the coming weeks bring some clarity to this, because most of the past few months has mostly been other teams, agents, etc., saying that the Cardinals, like many times, are in a holding pattern and not really revealing their direction.
  • Explained moments ago.
    Not being from St Louis I can't tell whether the local government will allow fans to attend Cardinal games come April, May or June. Do you have any insight whether the St Louis municipal government will allow fans if the Covid situation is similar to the present situation?
    Cardinals and the Mayor of St. Louis remain in conversation about what that looks like, and they cannot make certain plans in January for what they expect in April or May. Too far out. Not enough information. They are hopeful to identify a percentage of capacity that they can use early in the season and allow that to grow. I would caution you not to bank on a baseball season starting in April, not at the moment. That seems early given all the unknowns that we still have. As with everything, the information grows by the day -- but so does the spread of the virus, and those two things make next week an unknown, let alone three months from now.
    Hochman is pretty set on the Joc Pederson train. Do you think there's a better answer at the intersection of impact and realistic chance of Cardinals interest than him on the market?
    This is not a more readily available option that would improve the offense and add a dimension that they could use -- either every day or as part of a matchup. The move makes the most sense if you're looking for the most direct and pretty good value. He fits the profile of what the Cardinals have talked about adding from outside, via trade, and does not fit their comments about being aggressive spenders this year. It's that last part that could change as the market softens. We'll see. Hard to imagine that Pederson jumps the line and signs before seeing what say Brantley or even Springer get. I could see Brantley, on a shorter term deal and with a DH, also scratching the itch the Cardinals have for offense.
    Which OF do you take using modern SABRmetrics? Williams/DiMaggio/Musial. Mays/Aaron/Clemente.
    I think this is a trap. But what the heck. I'm not sure what you mean, so I'll bite. Let's use modern metrics, and see where they rank based on them.
    Start with WAR
    1. Willie Mays 156.2
    2. Hank Aaron 143.1
    3. Stan Musial 128.3
    4. Ted Williams 121.9
    5. Roberto Clemente 94.8
    6. Joe DiMaggio 79.1
    On to OPS+
    1. Ted Williams 191 
    2. Stan Musial 159 
    3. Willie Mays 156
    4. Hank Aaron 155
    5. Joe DiMaggio 155  
    6. Roberto Clemente 130  
    What about Runs Created?
    1. Stan Musial 2,552
    2. Hank Aaron 2,549
    3. Ted Williams 2,393
    4. Willie Mays 2,366
    5. Joe DiMaggio 1,569  
    6. Roberto Clemente 1,558  
    Or, say, WPA, a personal favorite ..
    1. Willie Mays 102.39
    2. Ted Williams 101.91 
    3. Hank Aaron 99.23
    4. Stan Musial 84.80
    5. Joe DiMaggio 55.54  
    6. Roberto Clemente 48.73  
    No surprise here, Ted Williams is top three in every single one of these "new" metrics, and Hank Aaron is on his heels. Musial maybe stands out from the group because he's underrated. Yep, I said it. Musial is underrated -- nationally, historically, wherever you want to go with that.
    A couple of others for you to consider, as far as outfielders go.
    Babe Ruth was quite good
    182.5 WAR
    206 OPS+
    2,718 Runs Created
    108.73 WPA
    And Rickey Henderson belongs in the conversation for the best baseball player of all time, at least in the top five, no?
    111.2 WAR
    127 OPS+
    2,164 RC
    67.21 WPA
    And there you have it. Was this a long way round to get me to say something about Ted Williams because I referenced Shoeless Joe as the best hitter, or something?
    This past question allowed me to look up another number real quickly, getting back to the Sosa/Abreu/Sheffield question. WPA -- Win Probably Added helps illustrate it even more. That stat looks at the impact a player and his performance had on the team winning. What his performance did to increase the probability of his team winning -- home run good, strikeout bad, late-inning grand slam to flip the game against the closer, really really really good.
    Gary Sheffield had a long career, and his WPA was 59.86, 21st all time.
    Bobby Abreu not as long of a career, and still his WPA was 48.95, or 48th.
    Sammy Sosa?
    He checks in with a 24.98 WPA. That ranks 191st all-time.
  • Hey Derrick, now that the Cardinals are losing two minor league teams I assume they will have to release around 60 players. Do you know when that will happen? It seems unfair to the players to wait until Spring Training.
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