I see no evidence that this would be a buy-low situation. He has a year remaining on his deal before he has an opt out. If he's willing to move that back or negotiate a way around it entirely, then the Rockies are going to ask for a return that is worth that length of control. There have been -- and will remain -- two huge hurdles for an Arenado trade:
-- The Rockies wanting talent in return based on the length of contract.
-- The interested team not wanting to give up much talent because of the potential Arenado can walk after what is now a year, and then only getting a draft pick as compensation.
We can throw into the mix that the Cardinals have specifically said that they don't see it likely they'd add his salary to their payroll, not for 2021 and for beyond, and thus to get the Rockies to shoulder some of that cost (as Cardinals did for Mike Leake, for example) then the prospects going the other direction have to be more.
What would change the equation is if Arenado says he wants a trade. That remains the one thing that shift the leverage and the conversation outlined above. He has to do that. Otherwise, forgive me, I still don't see this as a buy-low proposition. Nor should it be.