Cardinals chat with Derrick Goold
Bring your Cardinals questions and comments, and talk to Post-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold in a live chat starting at 1 p.m.
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I don't get the sense that cover will stretch as far as you suggest. The Cardinals have staked a lot of this season on returning to October and they have invested heavily in putting a staff and roster around the manager that the front office believes is good enough to win the division. They should be held to the expectations they've set for themselves -- and while injuries are a factor and maybe allow for a season to be graded on a curve, they are not going to go as far as when the team has been very clear on its bottom line for the season.
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When analyzing a player, how much does the front office accommodate for results versus peripheral statistics? A lot has been said (on Twitter) about Hicks and his numbers. Sure, he's got a low ERA and can blow up the radar gun, but he walks a lot of hitters and doesn't have the control you'd like to see for someone in late-innings situations.
Would they look at his performance and ask him to made adaptations at the major league level, just because velocity plays, or, would they consider sending him to AAA? -
A lot. The front office is looking at those peripheral stats so mcuh they're not peripheral. That's where the money is made, that's where the value is found -- in the margins. The Cardinals internal evaluations may not even have a win, loss, saves, RBI column on the sheet. They're looking at rates. They're looking at the fortune-telling stats not the already-told stats.
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How much influence does the FO have over Matheny/Maddux when it comes to pitching changes/bullpen management? Do they ever do any kind of retrospective during the season to talk about trends/themes and figure out what's working and what isn't? Or does it wait until the season ends?
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This is a good question in many ways. The front office is not the puppeteer during the game, pulling strings to guide decisions far away there in the dugout. The front office does provide the requested tools and the analytical suggestions to inform those decisions, and that data is delivered as needed -- as requested -- or as wanted. You bet the front office will do its job and provide information for the Cardinals coaches and managers when it comes to pitcher use and splits and stats, and they will do that to augment any of the research the coaches are already doing with video work and stat compiling on their own. When it comes to how young pitchers are used and how much, the front office takes an active role.The best part of your question is about the audits. These do happen, yes. They are informal, best I can tell. But they are throughout the season. Evidence of this came a year ago at about this time when the Cardinals front office ran some numbers (or maybe just compiled the numbers) on what the team was doing on the bases and how much of that could be traced back to coaching. Where the exotic outs something they could be avoided and if so -- how? That led to the rearrangement in June and a new third base coach for the remainder of the season and a new/former third-base coach for this season. Analytics put together by the front office and used in an audit of the staff informed that move.
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Isn't the problem with the Cardinals acquiring Machado, is that, while the Cardinals have a lot of good (i.e. potential everyday starter) talent, they lack elite (i.e. All Star) talent, even in the minor leagues. The Orioles will get at least 2 high draft picks for Machado, if they don't trade him. They have to assume that's at least 1 All-Star. At that level of potential, the Cardinals have Reyes, Flaherty, Weaver & Hicks. Is there anybody else in Cards system would even equal a supplemental round pick? Maybe Adolis Garcia?
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The last question is interesting for something related: On the one hand one evaluates a player based in part on his ability; on the other, isn't there something that should be done analogously in evaluating the front office--not the manager--for its ability to field a team that is able to stay on the field. Luck happens, bad luck included. Evaluations of health can happen, too, which can influence luck. I'm not suggesting the FO should or could anticipate the current injuries; I'm speaking to what goes into evaluations that put a team and minors together--I'm guessing.
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Absolutely. And it's one of the reasons why the Cardinals -- and other teams -- are investing so heavily in medical advancement and training measures. There are teams that call it "pre-hab," and the Cardinals internally refer to the pursuit of the "anti-fragile" athlete. The goal here is to reduce some of that luck -- stay ahead of injures -- and reduce the recovery time when an injury does happen. The Cardinals and other teams see this as the next edge they can find. I called it sabermedicals in a story a couple of years ago, and that's really what it is. They want to reduce the randomness and the impact of injuries -- and one reason why is because for a player to perform they need that player on the field, and for them to pass the evaluations that they need to keep their job, they need the team to win and they need the player on the field to do so.
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When Wacha first came up he was nearly unhittable. Since his shoulder injury, he has ranged from pretty good to not so good, but has never approached his performance as a rookie. Has any particular pitch regressed? Has his arm angle change affected pitches (perhaps the change-up?). Has it been his efforts to develop a third pitch? If Martinez and Reyes returning from the DL creates a logjam in the rotation, is there any chance that Wacha gets a turn in the bullpen to see if his pitch assortment plays better there?
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It's an interesting question, and I honestly think it has to do more with he's not new. He's not something the hitters are seeing for the first time. Right along with the health concerns came the reality that there was more and more scouting on Wacha and more and more video on him and hitters could be prepared for that downward plane that he brought to the mound, and they could know when and how to pick up the fastball and whether it was going to be a strike. And if it wasn't, then they could ignore it and ignore the changeup and just wait for the pitch over the plate. You still see that. Wacha must have command of his fastball to access the changeup and the changeup is his best pitch. If it's ignored, he's in trouble. What he's doing now is he's showing more looks from that same spot so that when the fastball clicks then he can go from that same angle to the cutter, the curve, or the changeup. It's giving him that different look -- and the benefit will be clear, but it all stems from his fastball command and now that hitters know that he's no longer a surprise.
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With DeJong out for a couple months, do you think the cardinals will make a push to get Machado? I'm not a huge fan of a rental, but I don't really see any other options. Do you think a package of Bader + Hudson + a lower level guy would be enough? Thanks for your patience.
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They might be -- but how often do you see deals like that? That's my point about the baseball cards. The Cardinals did "consolidate" their talent to get Ozuna. They traded controllable, upside prospects for Ozuna. They didn't move Piscotty or Grichuk in that deal. Nope. No consolidation. The Cardinals aren't likely to find a team that says, yes, we will take two of your 50-level players and eagerly trade you one 70-level elite player. Just don't see deals like that. The question may be about consolidating, but it really should be about identifying: Identifying redundancies and identifying weak spots in the depth chart. I'd see a deal where the Cardinals say, hey, let's take this area of strength (outfielders) and flip that to get a shortstop prospect that might be at Class AA and could help next year vs. the Cardinals finding some team to go hey I see your abundance of outfielders and I want to give you a better outfielder to get your number of outfielders. I understand the logic behind the question, just not the application.
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Alright, that seems like a good spot to end. The Cardinals are coming up for their whacks in the bottom of the second inning. David Eckstein and his wife, Ashley, are here at Busch Stadium. Rick Hummel is at the keyboard for the game and notes coverage. Joe Lyons will have a web-exclusive story on the game and then in the morning a web-subscriber story off the game for new content. The chat isn't over and already the Best Questions has been compiled by the web editors at StlToday.com.And if you want to take this chat live, you are welcome to join us at Sports on Tap. A handful of P-D writers will be there talking ball, puck, and Tigers, and you are welcome to come and ask questions at the event -- just like the chat. Come, hold us accountable.Tickets are available at www.stltoday.com/ourevents.Next week's chat will be shifted off Monday because of the holiday. Check your local listings for the day and time of the chat. I'll be in Milwaukee for the holiday and then the next day, as of right now, there appears to be a start of note that I'll be covering at Miller Park. Enjoyed the conversation today. Great variety of thoughts.
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