Good morning from the left coast where the marine layer hasn't been cooked off yet. I'm going hook into some coffee, download some caffeine and get going here. Fill the hopper. And forgive some grogginess at the get-go here.
With four of the starting pitchers they once had, and now a handful of their better bats Clapp & Co. are not the juggernaut they once were. For sure. Two ways to look at this. One, neither are the other teams, who have also leaked talent upward. Two, the Redbirds just keep winning. Heck, some of the best talent has been in the majors for awhile and Redbirds won 90 games. Clapp, Wisdom, and the crew just keep winning ...
Cardinals are concerned about Carpenter. Pham was encouraged last night. He's familiar with shoulder injuries, knows difference of severity.
Sure. I mean if the played this season out 100 times from here to the end they'd get into the playoffs 22 times. Thank goodness they won't be playing 2,200 more games of this season --- or will keep it the computers. If we just kind spitball ball it we'd come up with a similar number. There are four teams racing for two spots. They each have a 50 percent chance then and reduce it from there based on standings. Cubs have biggest lede and this are well above 50. Rockies have slimmest, should be closer to 50; Cardinals have the most steps to make up and thus should be as far away from 50 as Cubs are ahead of it. That's the logic, at least.
Delvin Perez was hit by a pitch and fractured a finger on his left hand. The Cardinals saw the injury as "season-ending" but not "career-threatening" because of its location. It was on the back of the hand, near or in the pinky, and not in his wrist. He's covering and the team expects him to participate in a variety of winter activities at the Jupiter, Fla., complex. He will not play winter ball. This is a lost season for him, save for some advancement made on defense and the work there with Oquendo.
See below. And sorry for not making this clear earlier.
There was an update on Adam Wainwright in this morning's paper, and an update on Jedd Gyorko in Saturday's paper. Those stories are still available online, so you can get broader detail there. I'll go over the high points here: Both were in San Diego on Monday. Yes, the fantasy draft is one of the reasons why they were both in San Diego, but they are also speeding forward on their rehab. Wainwright has thrown on flat-ground twice. He has felt much better. Gyorko is hitting and could take part in BP here shortly. He will be activated when his DL stay is over so he can be used as a pinch-hitter and then replaced by a pinch-runner at first base.
I am less certain this will happen as the Cardinals have such an issue with 40-man spots, and if they're not going to protect him this winter -- choosing instead to protect Mercado or some of the others at the lower levels -- then they aren't so likely to give him that spot now.
I put the updated odds of him staying at 35/65. Some I've talked to put it even lower 20/80 as the Cardinals are seem intent on going young, young, young. The answer they don't have for any of us is who is going to provide the innings. Wacha, Martinez could be set for that step, but one more with certainty would be a big deal for a contending team.
Haven't heard much about Solarte. Simmons is the S-name I've heard. Donaldson is a possibility. Not sure what Toronto's thinking is there. Myers will be discussed. But, in reality, the Cardinals are going to move to Tampa, camp outside Derek Jeter's house and make a deal for one of those outfielders.
Both Girsch and Mozeliak have family ties to Florida, so they could just spend the winter.
Cardinals are high on Edmundo Sosa, so I'm not sure they would go that way. I'm eager to hear what some of their thinking will be with Alvarez. Injury chewed into his season just a year after they chose his bat ahead of Cordoba's because Alvarez had one of the better, most productive seasons in all of the minors. Scouts/coaches like his bat, and still do. He and Mercado will be good litmus tests for how the Padres make the Cardinals rethink their Rule 5 protection, upside vs. protection.
The one to open the year or the one who finishes the year? Opens the year, no. The one who finishes the year as closer could very well be in the system at this point, yes.
Great question! It's going to be interesting. Arrieta has that bright glistening Cy Young Award season to boost him, and he's had a strong second half until the injury here that would have boosted him into free agency. I bet it's close, with Arrieta not finding the market he wants and getting just a tick more than the just younger Lance Lynn. So it could be the type of thing, where Lynn gets more years and thus more money, but Arrieta gets the bigger AAV. That's one way it could bend. Here's the more likely way it goes, based on the market: Arrieta gets Cueto money (6, $130m) and Lynn gets more than Zimmermann money (5, $110m). Or thereabouts. That's probably closer to what will happen.
Here's hoping they won't have one. Though, I dig the acronym, well done. Henceforth, it will be referred to as PUG in this chat. Well done.
The coffee I was able to get has a name: Death to Decaf. Seems reasonable.
I guess there's always a chance. Has not been a name I've heard much -- or at all, really. There has been some feeling that his market will go beyond what the Cardinals view as his value.
Fair. And this is the one thing about Arrieta. Still, he's got a Cy Young Award. He's got the reputation for being a staff ace. Aces are rare. Aces make bank. His agent will sell that. Someone will bite.
That's a big assumption. They didn't get one to their liking. They also looked at these moves a few different ways. As they considered options of trade they basically asked two questions:
1) What are they getting in return?
2) What do they have a replacement?
In both cases, the answer for Lynn was not as strong as, say, what they had with Mike Leake. The answer for No. 2 with Leake was either Flaherty or Weaver, and the Cardinals started to feel that either their young arms gave the team a better chance than Leake did at this point. Also, they recognized they were going to try to move Leake this winter to clear a spot for one of those pitchers as well, so that was where the "jump start" on the offseason comment came. This is the calculus in play. And when the answer is they're not getting as much as they want in return for Lynn (check out what starters commanded for short term control this year) and that they didn't have a better arm coming than Lynn, you get a sense of why they kept him. Next comes the QO.
Scroll back in the chat or check StlToday.com. Detailed there. Promise.
I have a bridge I'd like to sell you. It's lovely. A gorgeous span. Really a reach.