Cardinals chat with Derrick Goold

Cardinals chat with Derrick Goold

Bring your Cardinals questions and comments, and talk to Post-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold in a live chat at 1 p.m. Monday..




    Salutations. It's Draft Day. It's Cup Day. And most of all it's Chat Day, of course. Welcome to another in our weekly Cardinals chats. I'll be your host for the next four hours here, taking you right up to 5 p.m. and eventually the 6 p.m. STL time start of the MLB draft. Rick Hummel will have your coverage, but I'll also be offering some background on the picks, and may be able to duck back in here to answer a few straggler questions as the picks go on and on and on this evening ... You've got questions. I've got a few answers. Let see how they line up. Onward.
    DG - I know I'm probably dreaming, but humor me ... Scherzer to the Cardinals. Does Hicks, Gomber, Griffin Roberts, and Montero get it done or would it take more (maybe flip Gomber out for Reyes)?
    Let's start here, Max Scherzer to the Cardinals is not an outlandish notion born of message boards and rumor-mongering. It would be a mulligan that the Cardinals would entertain. There are some hurdles to clear before we even get to the notion of what it would take to get a deal done. So let's go through this step by step to get to your answer. First, Scherzer has to drive this. He would have to pursue a trade and want out and agree to one. He has a no-trade clause in his contract -- after this season. It clicks in with the 10/5 rights. So, if the Nats are eager to move him and he wants out, this would be the time for that decision to arrive. And it would be before the July 31 trade deadline of course. That creates the deadline -- and that gives us an understanding of Scherzer's power in it. Let's talk money. He is owed $35m per year in each year remaining on his contract, starting with this year. There is a whole lot of language in his deal for how its set up for luxury tax purposes and deferred payment. That said, the Nats are going to have to pick up some of that deal -- a bit each year. The Cardinals are going to study what they expect from Scherzer production wise in those years, agree to pay that part of the salary, and see where it goes. The more money a new team has to pick up on Scherzer's deal, the smaller the package of prospects they're going to give. That's the sliding scale. And that's where we arrive at your question.
     
    Austin Gomber -- not healthy at this moment, working his way back. A good part of any trade, for sure. I would also include Jake Woodford in this same "bucket."
     
    Jordan Hicks -- not being traded. Try another piece.
     
    Griffin Roberts -- huge unknown at this point. Perceived by scouts and Cardinals as a quick-moving reliever. Not a player now who the team will build a deal around, not if the Nats want to get a more proven talent, a more proven pitcher from the upper levels who can start.
     
    Montero -- Sure. The teams that are going to talk to the Cardinals about trades are going to zero-in on the talent at third base and the pitchers. That's where they'll want to focus, and the pitching is often where teams want to shop when it comes to the Cardinals. The Cardinals may try to steer them toward the outfield. Say Torres, for example. But a deal of this magnitude is going to take a significant high-ceiling talent regardless of how much salary a team takes on, it just won't take multiple high-ceiling talents. There will be a centerpiece, and then complements.
    DG, since Scherzer came up already...any issue with him refusing to come out of the game on Sunday?
    None. Max being Max is beautiful. And you saw what he did.
    I saw the Mariners are trading everyone. Any player that sparks your interest??
    That Marco Gonzales guy is pretty good. Lefthanded. Starter. The M's have a handful of players that are of interest to anyone for sure, none more I imagine than Haniger. Talent. Outfielder. Bat. Lots to like about his control and future and talent. The Cardinals should take a look at Tommy Milone. Lefty. Has struck out almost half of the lefthanded batters he's faced this season. Lefthanded batters have a .724 OPS against him the past three seasons, a sub-.300 OBP, and they do about .440 SLG against him. Given the Cardinals search for some lefty depth and an added neutralizer for the lefties in this division, wouldn't hurt to consider outside options.
    Derrick-- Please explain the rationale for starting Genesis Cabrera instead of Ponce De Leon . Thanks
    He's lefthanded. The Cardinals really are putting a lot of stock in his most recent outings for Class AAA Memphis and not the body of work, which would lean toward Ponce de Leon. The front office is intrigued by Cabrera's mix of power fastball, sink, and a curveball they believe will play at this level and compares well against other above average curveballs. They gather this info from Trackman and then compare and contrast. There's a lot going on here with the Cardinals and that fifth spot. The front office has championed Cabrera. As a group they're all interested in getting a lefty against the Cubs at some point, somehow. And there's the waiting for Reyes to arrive and take that spot.
    MLB Network reporter that the Cardinals have kept tabs on the Keuchel market. Have you heard the same thing? Do you see Keuchel as a real possibility for the Cardinals?
    News flash: Cardinals have kept tabs on every market. This is what they do. They keep tabs on all sorts of markets. They've kept tabs on what Kimbrel would likely sign for to. They're in the information gathering and talent acquisition business, and in previous chats I have described how the Cardinals go about gathering information for their purposes of talent evaluation -- and it may not have anything to do with actually trying to acquire said player unless the price drops/etc./etc./etc.That brings us to Keuchel. The Cardinals got the full sales pitch this winter about what a fit he would be for them, how he'd fit right in, give the young rotation a mentor in the middle -- and that all important groundball getting lefty that they didn't have lined up at the time. The Cardinals listened. The Cardinals had some interest. All of this hasn't changed. What the Cardinals aren't sure of is what Keuchel they'd get. Is he the lefty who won the Cy Young and was one of the game's best groundball-getters, or is he more like the recent trend as the stuff has faded a bit and he's not the pitcher he once was. Here's how I've had it explained to me, in more tangible terms: The Cardinals would be intrigued by adding a 4.0 WAR pitcher to the rotation. Is Keuchel there? He was, not too long ago. Can he be again? Is Bumgarner? And so on. What the Cardinals are measuring that against is cost -- they don't want a 4.0 WAR salary for a 2.0 WAR pitcher, for example -- and whether they can, in aggregate, get the same production from their committee of young pitchers, which is now Cabrera and could be Reyes, Gomber, Wacha, and Ponce de Leon at some point. If they think that group can provide, in total, a greater contribution they'll go that route. Of course they've kept tabs on the situation. They want to know a) if Keuchel can be had for a deal and b) what starting pitching is going for right now so they have a sense of what the market will look like when they consider trading for a starter in the coming eight weeks.
    What player do you think the Cards would like to take in the draft in Round 1?
    Don't have a good read on a specific player. Wilson, SS, and Lugo, SS, have come up quite often around the Cardinals I have been told they expect a position player of interest to be available at No. 19 -- possibly several of them that they have interest in. The one caveat offered to that is that there are some high-ceiling pitchers that could go around that time, and the Cardinals may shift out of the strength of the draft and instead go to their strength, developing pitching. It would be a surprise based on all that I've read and heard if one or two of the top college shortstops don't get to No. 19 or Busch from UNC for example, and the Cardinals passed over them. Sure seems like the high-end pitchers are going to go before then, and the Cardinals will look to find their pitching prize with their next few picks.
    Here's a rundown of the latest mock drafts, complete with some thoughts from my reporting and my experience watching the Cardinals draft: https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/tick-tock-when-cardinals-are-on-the-clock-mock-drafts/article_2b2a6035-08b9-55d9-9f22-48059ef2c841.html
    Wong showed a pulse this past weekend, but he was in a terribly deep funk prior. You still bullish on his future all-star status?
    I'll stand by my prediction. And if I'm wrong, I'll own it. There's a written record of my prediction, so I can't hide from it.
    My 21 year old daughter just asked me to teach her about baseball, and why people like it; I suspect that there is a young man involved in this sudden interest. If I show her ONE GAME, not necessarily the Cardinals, that showcases strategy, has tension & excitement, and might make a fan out of her, what game would that be?
    One game. Wowser. I'd go with Game 7 NLCS 2006, Cardinals vs. Mets. Lots going on in that game. Strategy. Mistakes. Great defense. Great finish. Sharp play all around. Pitches called that changed at-bats. Redemption for a catcher. Just lots going on, and plenty to discuss -- and so much at stake.
  • I'm really not getting the apparent interest of many in Baumgardner....isn't he well past it?
    He's got a 104 ERA+. He's pitched at least six innings in 11 of his 12 starts. He's got eight quality starts. I'm not sure what Cardinals rotation you've watched here for the first two months, but some kind of certainty like that has to have an appeal.
    Does the Cubs being rumored in hot pursuit of Kimbrell do anything to check interest on him here as well?
    Nope. Much to the angst of many who are fans of the Cardinals, they don't operate that way. There are many teams who don't.
    I get the Scherzer concept 100%...he's leading MLB in WAR as a starting pitcher. #2 is Matthew Boyd without all the contract concerns, in fact the opposite.

    The package you mentioned for Scherzer get a Boyd deal done?
    Wait, what? No, no, why? I'm not sure I get the comparison at all, sorry.
    Do you see carpenter and goldschmidt going on a hot streak right now? They are very capable of carrying this offense
    They are. I imagine we'll see the start of the hot streak in hindsight. Some of the indicators are there for both of them. But indicators only get so far. Eventually the box score has to show a hot streak.
    Is there anything to the Scherzer to the Cards fantasy? Do you think it's actually plausible, or are we just dreaming?
    This season is shaping up like the central team with the best move(s) at the deadline wins it. The Cardinals track record in that regard is not good lately. Any chance this time it’s different?
    It better be. Or the result at the end of the season likely won't be.
    I don't want Scherzer because he's 3-5 and the Nats are 3-10 in his starts...lol jk it's not 2002 anymore
    I think you meant 1982.
    My interest in the Cardinals goes way back to the early 50's at a camp learning how to play the infield from Marty Marion, so I already think the franchise is something special. But over the weekend, while watching the Yankees, I couldn't help but notice that there is something different about that franchise. You notice right away that all the young men are clean-shaven. Their players seem to act as if they are different; special in a way I can't seem to put into words, but obviously proud to part of it. In spite of Stanton's refusal to come, and Bryant's ignorant comments about St. Louis, I think being a Cardinal is also something special. I found myself wishing our players would, as a group, get rid of the beards, stand out from the norm, and show the pride they should feel as a Cardinal, and separate themselves from the other 95%. They should feel honored to be on the same field as Stan Musial, Red Schoendist, and others! Think will ever see that? If the Yankees can do it, can't the Cards, too?
    If you'll forgive me, I don't equate facial hair with pride. One would look at the hockey players these days and see tremendous playoff bears and go, hey, look at the pride they have in their team and their tradition. And then there's the guy who may not be able to grow a beard as bush as the others -- does he lack pride, does he lack a respect for tradition? Nah. Not at all. I think the Yankees policy is silly, and really always have. It also isn't consistent. So, they have to shave their beards But some wear socks high, some where socks low, some streak pine tar across their pinstripes, some don't. 
     
    To me, pride isn't in something you can shave or grow. It's more permanent than that. It's in your actions.
     
    There are many Cardinals in that clubhouse that walk by quotes from Stan Musial every day and see retired numbers hanging all around them in the clubhouse and pennants draped down the hallways, and there are many of them who knew Red Schoendienst personally, learned from him, felt the warmth of his presence. That's in their heart, that's in their actions, that's in how they play the game and respect the game and respect the fans and respect the city. It' not on the hairs of their chinny chin chins -- or lack thereof.
     
     
    What are the chances we see Alex Reyes this weekend in Chicago?
    I'd put it at 50/50 as of this moment. I would have given it 70/30 before his start last night. The Cardinals were discussing adding Reyes to the rotation for this weekend's series in Chicago. That was a possibility. They are also looking at wanting a lefty against the Cubs. So that decision could come with how Cabrera does Tuesday vs. the Reds. The ball is quite literally in his hand.
    What Cardinal will be traded by deadline?
    Maybe none at this point, not from the major-league roster. They'd be a buyer today.
    Now that Ozuna has dropped Boras, do you think he would be looking for an extension?
    I don't think these two things are related. Just the agent the Cardinals are going to talk to would be. Here's what I know about this: Ozuna has warmed to the Cardinals and has really enjoyed this season so far with them. Any detachment or frustration he felt last year either stemmed from his health or the general ick that seemed to grip the clubhouse at times last year. They were losing. There were communication issues. You know the drill. Ozuna was not blind to that. This year, different. He's feeling better. He's feeling stronger. He digs the vibe. He be interested in sticking around, and will want to have that conversation at some point. He told me that he sees this as "an opportunity" and he later called this season full of "motivation for what's possible." I would expect he'd really like a chance to choose where he plays next.
    I’m trying to come to grips with this roster; it appears that future everyday guys in the system may be strong enough replace vets and to dominate but pitching needs help. Do we trade the 30+ vets (except Goldy) for young starters and hurry along Carlson etc.
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