Well, if they think postseason success is not somewhat based on luck, then they agree with every other team and math. Luck has a tremendous influence on the postseason. Getting there? No, that's based on health and talent and roster construction and competition and the division. But once there ... well, let me turn to an expert. Several years ago, I was having a conversation about building a roster specifically for postseason success and whether or not that was a wise idea or even something that a team could do. An executive with a team suggested that the best way to go about this would be to build a team to win over the longhaul -- depth, talent, stay ahead of division rivals -- and then hope that three pitchers or something emerge and get hot and carry you to the championships. The Boston Red Sox of 2018 are the outlier, for example. This executive said, and let me paraphrase within the quotes because I don't have the precise quote handy, that's because "the postseason is a crapshoot. Short series. Teams get hot. It takes some luck."
That executive? Theo Epstein.
But no team thinks the postseason is entirely luck. As you outlined, the Cardinals are very aware that they survived the NLCS and got the pennant through a plucky bullpen and the creative use of that bullpen through a gifted manager and pitching coach. No doubt there. And Freese. Freese helped. And they even got that far because Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay locked in a duel that no one should have lost and the Cardinals got fortunate -- and they played well. But on a one-run, winner-take-all like that can you really say that Philly didn't play well enough to win five out of 10 times, and the Cardinals played well enough to win five out of 10 times, and this one time they did.
It was the best thing for the Cardinals to win 2006 because it gave that era a championship the 2004 team earned and the 2005 team could have had. It balanced the scales. It was the best thing for the Cardinals to win 2011 because, hey, it gave St. Louis David Freese and that 1-0 win in Philly, and so much else as they said goodbye to Pujols, Duncan, and La Russa -- three Hall of Famers. It sold more tickets. It bought goodwill with most fans. It kept them ahead of the Dodgers and Giants as far as championships go by an NL team, and so on. What it didn't do is say that the postseason is complete luck because both of those teams had a lot of talent.
Carpenter. Pujols. Wainwright. Rolen, Edmonds, Eckstein. Molina.
There is a lot of correlation between roster quality and postseason success. Start with the fact that I've never ever seen a lousy roster even get to the postseason, and to win the postseason a team has to get there. That has been a big problem for the Cardinals recently. You may have heard.