I'm not surprised by it. It's classic Backup Quarterback stuff.
Had this conversation recently with a few people who are in the industry and would try to track such things. They agree that Goldschmidt would likely command about the same kind of contract, maybe slightly more if two, three teams got into the bidding, but it wouldn't go well above what he got from the Cardinals. That was a good deal for the player and for the market. Mikolas actually was seen as similar. And given the cost of pitching so far in the market place, you could make the case that he would get about the same as a free agent that he did in the extension. Carpenter's is obviously larger. And it's larger than the conversation that the Cardinals could have had with him this winter had they waited and let the natural progression of his contract go from an option for 2020 into a discussion of an extension built off it for 2020 and 2021. Production would matter. So, you've got two of the three in that $230-million spending spree.
The Cardinals are one of the most aggressive teams when it comes to taking out insurance policies on their players. They have it on most of the multi-year deals they sign, yes. That's part of the cost that ownership bakes into the pursuit that doesn't show up in the reports on the salaries, contracts, and signings.
No. No. No. No. No. No. It's bad business to trade the best player. #KeepWong
I've championed an aggressive ranking in the prospect ranks for Lane Thomas. The Cardinals are high on him, for sure, and that optimism stretches from the analytics that inform the front office to the eyeballs/scouting that inform the major-league coaches. Both sides agree on Thomas' upside. Pillar of the lineup? I'd preach caution. Contributor, run-creator ... sure. He could be an above average bat if he's playing center field.
Alright. This chat has, for the better part of the past few months or so, suggested that it doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the fit for Bader in Colorado. And while the Cardinals would welcome a chance to trade for Dahl there has been no indication, zero, none, absolutely nothing from the Rockies that they have any interest in having that conversation with the Cardinals or any other player. They're high on Dahl's ability, too, and they have not been discouraged by his run of injuries here. They don't have Dahl fatigue. Too much upside. Seattle has taken Haniger around the market to see what they could get in return for him. The Cardinals explored that move a year ago, but obviously didn't for long because they focused on Goldschmidt and, in the end, Seattle didn't move Haniger. The M's don't want to sell low on him, and that's the sense coming out of the GM meetings -- that they would be selling low giving the returns they could get.
Yes. It speaks to the brave new world of betting on analytics. Rapsodo should get a cut of that salary for giving the Phillies reason to spend that isn't in the production.
Well, the team doesn't have any reason to maintain them, then. The new team has to make that decision.
He has worked hard to get in position to be a major-league manager, and I hope that work is rewarded with success. I appreciate hard work in any career.
If only it were that easy.
The Cardinals want to add more revenue. That's their goal. The absolutely are in the revenue business. They will get an uptick in the revenue from the broadcast deal from 2019 and 2020, and that's built into their deal with Fox Sports Midwest. It raises every year. The Cardinals tie their baseball operations spending to their revenue -- and that draws from the TV deal and from ticket sales. Those two of the streams of "local revenue" that the Cardinals talk about. So, yes, year to year they set their payroll spending -- and when it comes to payroll they talk about the 40-man roster -- and ownership said that they went above the planned payroll in 2019. The front office says there's some elasticity for 2020 given where they are and if they have the opportunity to add some one. Ownership championed the big addition of Stanton that obviously would have limited their spending elsewhere. And DeWitt has said, bluntly, that the Cardinals don't expect to get near the luxury tax threshold. That's their model. It's a business, like a newspaper or any other business. They want their spending to line up with their revenue so that, yes, they get profits, and that those profits are consistent. Part of the reason is because of the penalties they'd incur by going over. They think that would be detrimental to how they build the team, year to year.
Of course they say it's nobody's business. That's how most teams operate with spending. They're not public businesses, with the exception of the Atlanta Braves, so they don't have to account for their spending. Premiums are quite high for players, absolutely. Injuries happen. And of course they vary from player to player, because some pitchers have had elbow surgery, some haven't, and the premiums are going to reflect the chances of that. Also, in my experience, the deductibles are high, so the relief isn't as grand as you expect. A team once explained to me how the rebate they'd get on the contract was somewhere around 33 percent of the contract, maybe 40 percent, after the deductible and some relief is better than none at that price, but it's not a windfall.
ESPN reports Strasburg is returning to the Nationals for a load of cash.
They are private businesses, with the exception of the Atlanta Braves. They operate like other private businesses. Having done this, it's possible to reverse engineer where the Cardinals fit into the revenue rankings through what the Braves disclose and other means of reporting. But specifics? Hardly. They'd have to open their books. The St. Louis Blues did this many, many years ago, and I was able to go through them, see how the revenues lined up with spending -- or didn't -- and what that meant for the club. The Cardinals don't seem to have interest in doing the same. Can't imagine why any team would when it doesn't have to. So, any time you see franchise rankings and estimates of revenue it's usually based on estimates and derivative formulas that input guesses where there are unknown values and comes up with something that looks sexy but isn't based on reporting.
Good question. Scouts I have talked with like Thomas, see Carlson as the star that others do as well, and some are intrigued by the many ways that Arozarena can influence a game, given his speed, his versatility in the field, and the feel he shows for the strike zone.
We'll see. There is a stack up of players ahead of him at first, for sure.
Well, already this winter meetings is more eventful than the previous two, combined.