Let's start off with a ceiling question. I'm not sure how anyone knows the answer to the ceiling questions. Martin has averaged 20 wins a season in his 13 years. He's taken each of his last three programs to the NCAA Tournament but has yet to grab one of the coveted low seeds. It's fair to expect him to have a team every year that competes for an NCAA at-large and with the right roster make a March push in the postseason. Is that a high ceiling? Not necessarily. But ceilings are meant to broken.
Here's a head coach's first seven seasons at a Power 5 program:
14-15
19-14, NIT 2nd round
12-19
20-10, NIT 2nd round
22-13, NIT quarterfinals
19-15, NIT 1st round
25-10, NCAA 1st round
Nothing spectacular there, right? But then his recruiting perked up.
Here are his last five years:
26-9, NCAA 2nd round
23-12, NCAA Elite 8
29-8, NCAA Sweet 16
26-5, NCAA canceled
16-6, NCAA Sweet 16 (current)
That's Florida State's Leonard Hamilton. His track record is hardly unique. The country is full of coaches who produced modest results early and then picked up steam and build consistent winners. But if you would have asked about Hamilton's ceiling at FSU after his first four years - and also based the answer on his results at Oklahoma State and Miami - the expectations wouldn't be great.
So, my point is, there's not a lot of sense in projecting a ceiling, especially in today's game with so many moving parts from year to year. Roster building is a one-year-at-a-time challenge in 2021. Turnover is rampant everywhere. This transfer cycle is going to have a major impact on MU's 2021-22 season - and the same will be true a year from now.