Join Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold for his live chat at 11 a.m. Monday
In this special edition of the chat, Derrick also takes questions about his Hall of Fame ballot.
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It could take awhile if Simmons is any sort of a reference. Ted Simmons fell off the BBWAA ballot after his first year of eligibility. Big miss by the writers of the time. For sure. And it took decades for him to overcome that and get through the veteran's committee. Same for Edmonds. He fell off the ballot after Year 1. He should not have. Some of us voted for him to avoid that from happening. Still it did. So, now he goes into the veteran committee where he'll need a strong advocate to reach the ballot and a Harold Baines-like advocate in the room for the vote.Curt Flood's avenue to the Hall sure seems like its through a Hall decision, not a vote. -
I'm curious about how the Cardinals expect to cover innings in 2022. 3 of the 5 projected starting pitchers have not pitched more than 40 IP in EITHER of the last two season, and it seems unreasonable to expect enormous bumps from any of them, much less all 3. The guys you'd put in the 5-10 slots (Reyes, Hicks, Oviedo, etc.) haven't established themselves as consistent pitchers, much less innings eaters. So where do the innings come from? -
This is a question that they must confront, and soon. And one of the ideas they have in place is the expanding use of swing relievers, and that's why you're hearing the discussion of Hicks as a starter, Reyes as a starter, Cabrera as a starter, Woodford as a surefire major-leaguer and so on. The Cardinals see the possibility of having Hicks, Reyes, and Woodford all in the bullpen and all capable of pitching multiple innings -- with assured recovery days. It's somewhat like the shadow rotation that Dave Duncan and I spoke about all those years ago. If a team has three clear starters, then how does it use the mix of four or five pitchers for those other two spots to maximize the rotation -- in aggregate.It's a bicycle gear rotation.There are the starters who work on the every-five-day rotation -- the big gear -- and then there is the little gear that works at a slightly accelerated pace, available every three days. Hicks, Reyes, and Woodford would be in that middle-relief or spot start group that could give three innings and then assured rest while the other two are available. It's an aggressive use of the bullpen, and it really puts a priority on having alternatives for the seventh, eighth, AND ninth when days like Gallegos or Reliever To Be Added T isn't around.That is one notion kicking around the Cardinals for how to cover innings, and then of course during the season you'll see the arrival of Liberatore, Thompson, Rondon to cover innings, too.
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Failing should be in quotes. I hope for the best for everyone involved -- baseball coverage is better when there are the writers hired by The Athletic covering baseball. Competitive makes everyone better. And I appreciate that they called their shot when they entered the game: They challenged newspapers to keep up with them. Many newspapers did. The Post-Dispatch took note for sure, and I know I aimed to rise to the challenge and maintain what readers expect from us. One newspaper answered the challenge by ultimately buying them.
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In some cases, you're talking about ballparks that are in cities, so that would mean buying land around the ballpark, building said structure and so on. Better maybe the consider structures already in place -- say dorms at a nearby college that aren't in use during the summer? A hotel to buy outright? Consider Memphis for an example. AutoZone Park is right there in downtown Memphis. There is housing nearby, but that's apartment and city/downtown living, so the Cardinals are going to clear that out? Or build nearby? Same with the situation in Springfield, where the Cardinals are positioned adjacent to a college campus. I'm thinking that doing that would delay something that needs to be fixed more immediately.One model that is closest to yours is what the Braves have done with their spring campus, but they had far more room, were forward-thinking, and it's too late for the Cardinals/Marlins to do that in Jupiter. An alternative is necessary.
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Hi, Derrick. I apologize in advance if this is a ridiculous question. Given the Cardinals apparent need for pitchers to eat some innings and given the flux of their staff - would it be preposterous to look at a starter who doesn't have to take the ball every 5 days - but could work on a little longer rest? I have no idea what the salary cost would be - but it seems like Clayton Kershaw could be a fit. Thoughts?
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I don't think Kershaw is the answer here, but the Cardinals -- as detailed earlier -- have some options already in place like this, and there is a fella by the name of Collin McHugh out there in the open market that would be appealing for that kind of role, too. That is certainly one way they could go about their innings fix. McHugh, like Kershaw, would not have any roster flexibility, while a pitcher like Oviedo would, as an example. He could move back and forth from Memphis to the majors when needed and not leave the Cardinals with a 25-man roster there for a stretch.
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I have a idea to help slow tanking down.
First round of the draft draw names out of a hat. That is the drafting order for round one.
Round two the last team not making the playoffs that year picks first in round two and go down from there. Playoff teams pick last.
Round three is team with the worst record just like it is now.
Why would this not work? -
I don't see teams turning over the draft to complete randomness for the first round. The stakes are too high. Consider the financial implications for a team. A difference between the slot value for the first pick and the last pick this past season was $8.4 million to $2.4 million -- that's a $6m swing in spending that a team would put on the luck of the hat? Oh, gets worse. Look at the significant difference between the return on the talent as it hits a continental shelf probability wise.There have been some studies done on this, but quickly at my fingertips I pulled up Baseball America and FanGraphs studies that give you a sense of how risky that Mad Hatter Draft would be for teams, especially those trying to rebuild, and how it would not be deterrent for tanking because the randomness of it would just invite zero planning at all ...From 2000-2010:-- The first 10 picks of those drafts yielded 14 "successful" standout players.-- The 11-30 picks of those drafts yielded 18.From 2000-2010:-- Players draft from 1-5 had a career average of 12.8.-- From 6-10, 9.5-- From 11-15, 8.7-- From 16-20 ...plunge to 4.9It's too much to randomize, especially when the draft continues to be a mechanism for competitive parity, which despite what other leagues will claim baseball does have more of than the other pro sports.Now, trading draft picks -- then we're talking.
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To be honest, if he is in the bullpen in a few years, the contract isn't all that bad given the cost of relievers these days. Miley has a $10m salary for the Cubs in the coming year, and Matz is going to make less than that for the Cardinals. It will be interesting to compare their performances, as well as what Stroman does for almost three times as much for the Cubs. The Matz deal seems like a value play, true to the definition. The Cardinals are banking on getting performance beyond that salary because of the defense they'll put behind him, and if it doesn't work out the innings he could provide just to cover them will be the return, and those are pricey these days, too.
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I wouldn't discount the Cubs so quickly. Something is going on there on the north side that you should keep an eye on. As things stand right now, if it plays out like you suggest, the two teams atop the NL Central will have 19 games each against Pittsburgh to fatten their record. When I look at whether a division can produce a wild-card team I look at the bottom of the division, not the top. If there's a 100-loss team in there (or two?) then those wins have to go somewhere, and it's going to create a situation where the top two teams will be able to inflate those records ahead of divisions that are more competitive top to bottom.
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Because that was the market. Charlie Morton set it. Cardinals had to pay it. If the Cardinals came to Adam Wainwright with the deal you suggest, it would make sense for him to reject it and become a free agent because the market is saying he could demand more than that. That Braves increased the cost for the Cardinals are both catcher and starter.
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Because it's a false premise. You cannot assume complete financial transparency. I'm sorry. There's just no track record of that, so the players will always wonder if their deal is to get 48% of the revenue pie, if they're actually getting 39% because MLB Network, tech from MLB Advanced Media, or some other stream of revenue for the owners is kept from the definition of "revenue." Trust is brittle between the sides, and while I appreciate the point that you're making it would make for a long work stoppage to try and get to this point.Again, the players had a strike to avoid a cap, lost a World Series. They would like all teams to spend like the Dodgers and Mets and make that possible for the benefit of players, not suppress salaries to rise lower-spending teams.
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They're not playing them. That's the truth. Lane Thomas was not going to play ahead of O'Neill, Bader, or Carlson, and I'm not sure that you can blame the Cardinals for making that choice. The Nationals would also play those three ahead of Thomas -- they just didn't have those three. The bigger question remains Arozarena, but even that has an answer. The Cardinals sided with Bader's glove ahead of Arozarena's upside offensively, and you'll recall that Thomas was about to get a bulk of the playing time ahead of both of those outfielders and then he was injured, so Shildt pivoted back to what he had relied on to that point -- run prevention. He said as much as Bader returned to center field almost as if he never left, and we were left asking about how a team struggling to produce offense could sit a bat that hit as well as Arozarena had in Triple-A.It's playing time. Who would you have played Thomas ahead of?
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