Join Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold for his live chat at 1 p.m. Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to Monday’s 1 p.m. live chat.
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Greetings Derrick,
You are my favorite @ the PD, Ben’s very, very close, thanks for your time.
Most don’t understand you give us your time to expand our understanding, as well as entertain. From me, you get high marks for both. Thank you!
You were correct in a spring chat, when I advocated for Story, Albert and Voit.
I still say there was a place for Voit, especially at the cost to acquire him.
Now, as the smoke clears I concur with you, we need more top shelf pitching.
When you are right; you are right. Your call wore well with time.
So far…
Thanks & be blessed. -
Thanks for the kind words. There's still time for me to be wrong. Will be interesting to see how Voit does in Slam Diego. When the Cardinals made the move for Pujols it did make it clear that they didn't want a right-handed hitter from outside unless that right-handed hitter was Pujols, or so it seems now in hindsight. -
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There has been some of that, too. In fact, that is how it started, but let's not forget that those baseballs are part of the business of baseball, too. They got to an authenticator. They get a hologram. They go up for sale sometimes moments later for fans. So there's a whole ecosystem that is very impressive for how a baseball goes from game to authentication and then to the consumer/collector. But, the studies that MLB did to prompt the sticky-stuff checks were based some on the baseballs examined from games.
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I'm trying to adjust my seasonal math for 2022 and request your oversight. On a normal year I would not get too worried about a pitcher until after his 2nd or 3rd start of the season. If he is still doing a "Matz" on start no 3, then it WAS time to worry.
However in 2022, starts 1 and 2 that should have been in Jupiter now are in the season and COUNT. Start 3 would be about the same as start 1 in a normal year?
But even if the math works, they can't wait until after three starts to worry can they? Help! -
If all teams are coming into this with a shortened spring, and they are, it does seem like we need to adjust the math a little bit -- and can because there is a 28-man roster. What we cannot do is overlook the fact that the Cardinals have baked a short start into their rotation. That means they can really cover one less short start. And now they have covered two. It won't be that big of a deal, honestly, because of the rainout today and the offday this past Friday, but if they played today? Goodness. Nine consecutive days, four in Milwaukee, and two short starts -- that put heavy weight on Hudson today. Especially with Hicks' short start tomorrow. That changed the math for me. As far as judging an individual pitcher, one start is too soon, and three maybe too soon this season. I think you're onto something there ...
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All the talk about ticket sales with Pujols is true. But the merch is a big part of it.. the Cardinals still sell Musial jersey's for crying out loud. They had obviously stopped selling Pujols jerseys and its unclear when/if that would've restarted. Now they get to sell Pujols for decades to come
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I seem to write this a lot in the chat and on Twitter, and it's OK because I think it's important to point out: Merchandise is shared revenue. Shared revenue. So, when Pujols signed with the Angels and the Angels sold all those jerseys, the Cardinals benefited. When the Rockies traded Arenado to the Cardinals and the Cardinals sold all those Arenado jerseys, the Rockies benefited. Now, there is some slight local bump, right, because for example those sales are happening at Cardinals team stores in some cases, but let me type this again -- merchandise sales are shared revenue for teams.
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According to other outlets, he had other offers. Or other teams interested. There was a point in time when the Dodgers had kept in touch and said they would have interest if other moves did not happen. That was all I was able to confirm other than Pujols was especially eager to return to the Cardinals if that was possible, and he saw the opening to do so.
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Happy Monday, DG!
I believe you mentioned in last week's chat that Jordan Walker "could be a top 10 overall prospect a year from now." Just to expand on that observation, the 19-year-old Walker is *already* a top 10 overall at the Baseball Prospectus website, checking in at #7. And if we exclude the players currently on MLB rosters, Jordan is #4 right now.
My question, sir, regards Adam Wainwright. I just checked his B-Ref page, and he's 80-95% of the way to HOF, per the classic four Bill James yardsticks. However he's much farther away, per straight WAR. No chance to get there unless he switches to knuckleballing and pitches 'til he's 45. So, the question: with the HOF voters skewing younger every year, isn't Adam doomed by his WAR shortage? -
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Thank you for pointing that out. I was referencing Baseball America and should have made that more clear. That said, Baseball Prospectus is ahead of the game and beating me to my own prediction.No, not necessarily. I understand what you're saying. I don't think that will be the case. I think the voters are going to be more open than ever to trying to understand the scope of a career. I don't know any voters who are one-stat voters. One-issue voters? Yes, there are a few. But they are rare. One-stat voters? Nope. They don't rely only on WAR, and to suggest they do is to diminish the effort so so so so many voters put into their ballots. Wainwright is going to have a compelling case for Cooperstown. It could be like Buehrle's honestly. And we'll see how the voters start to look into that. If anything, the years missed or shortened or eroded by injury are going to be what catch the voters eye and shape their ballots, more than the WAR, which they'll explore in detail beyond the single stat.
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I think the Pujols restraint over opening weekend needs to be recognized. In the past he would have played all weekend, if for no other reason than to please the fans. They are either holding true to their favorable match-up only plan or they see something worrisome. Either way it needs to be recognized.
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I really appreciate the description here. It does feel still. Such a compelling and well explained observation -- the game gets static compared to the scribbles and lineup changes we're used to seeing. No change due to pinch hitters guaranteed, or the thrill of the lineup not changing due to a complete game. Static is a great word for it. We'll see this change over time for the Cardinals as they do go with matchups and pinch-hits when possible. There just wasn't that opportunity over the past few days.That proposal to tie the DH to the starter had some advocates and seemed to have some momentum, but it is highly unlikely now. We're into the universal DH, and there's no evidence it's not hear to stay. If anything the discussion of tying the starter to the DH was what led to the Ohtani rule that allows the starting pitcher to remain in the game as the DH after he leaves the game as the pitcher. So, it had the opposite effect!I imagine we'll adjust. But I do really appreciate the thought and description here.
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Has ability that would give him a high upside. They want to see more competitiveness from him, and I do wonder if when they see that they also see what scouts have told me about him for years -- that he's a swift-mover and capable to impact a game in relief. Back in 2020, we took a look at the PD for the future at all nine positions and closer. Oviedo as the future at closer. That wasn't out of thin air. That was definitely what several people I spoke to thought of his upside -- that mix of slider, velocity, frame, and all of it.
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Getting regular, prolonged rest for Hicks is a terrific idea. Kudos to Marmol & the front office. And anything that forces Jordan to pace himself and NOT throw a million miles an hour, over and over and over, is also a terrific idea. But. But he cannot possibly succeed in the *major* leagues as a starter. Not yet. The young man needs the AAA time he never got (if not AA), to do what every other starting pitcher gets to do: work on commanding his pitches & cultivating his secondary stuff. The club may have ruined Oviedo by rushing him to an MLB rotation without having succeeded above A-ball, and they're doing the same with Hicks now.
Thanks for letting me praise & vent, DG. -
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Probably not, but it will lead to some changes in how decisions are made -- and being out of the playoffs might do the same, or a brief stay in the postseason might do the same. The last time the Cardinals had a losing season, they upended the front office by firing the GM and moving Mozeliak into the big chair atop baseball operations. He's been there ever since, even though the title for that position has changed.
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It's only 3 games and one pregame line-up, but does the DH permanently bat 5th? And I'm not asking this because they collectively went 1-for-13 this weekend, but does Nootbaar really profile as a 5th place hitter? The off-season idea was to add more thump there, right? I worry that the only real thump in this line-up is 1-4 and the rest are wild cards.
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No, the DH does not permanently bat No. 5. Marmol will change the lineup over time to reflect the production of the people in it. Happens every year. If the DH bats fifth all season that's because they're getting rocking production out of the DH then. But if there's a lull or a search or a sink in production then someone who can protect Arenado will move up or move in and there will be changing of the lineup. There always is.
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Thanks for the rainy Monday chat, DG.
Over the weekend recent draftees McGreevy & Graceffo tossed 10 shutout innings in High-A, permitting just two total hits (10 K's and one walk also). I know McGreevy was the much higher draft pick...but Graceffo has markedly increased his velocity since being drafted, and now throws in the upper 90's, with good control. So which pitcher is the better prospect? And how hard does McGreevy throw? (I assume they will both remain starters.) Thanks again! -
McGreevy at the moment. He had a superb showing in spring when he got a chance in front of the major-league coaches. He just blistered hitters, showed no fear, had no trouble throwing strikes, and caught a lot of eyes with his velocity. It hops. He's not at the 100 that Graceffo brought to the mound, but McGreevy is up there, above average for a starter. Had to see him throw a few at 97 mph, and that was an early outing of spring training. Impressive turn, honestly.
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Read an interesting bit of trivia on MLB the other day. Last season Dalton Varsho became only the third person in history to play at least 30 innings in center and 30 innings at catcher in the same season. One of the other two was obviously Biggio. The other did it as a Cardinal. Wondering how long you had to ponder to come up with the name.
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Not all that long, but I will tell you that one name that leaped to mind played for the Cardinals but a quick look of the season he was outfield/catcher and I was surprised to learn he did not do it with the Cardinals. The answer is Eli Marrero, I believe. The player I thought might have done it and be somewhat overlooked for doing it was Tim McCarver. He did. Just not with the Cardinals.
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Catchers get applauded deservingly so for moving to block pitches wide or in the dirt. But when they choose not to do so, the pitcher ends up with a wild pitch. Seems like a "Cather's Indifference" category should be added to the stats for such occurrences - much like the stolen base when the game is out of hand with runners at 1st and 3rd.
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I wouldn't suggest that there is a statistic that already reveals if a catcher does that too often. It's called playing time and then it's called roster spot. If a catcher does as you suggest too often, that catcher is not going to stick around for very long, not at that position. I cannot think of a catcher who I've watched "choose not to" block pitches more than a few times and then stayed at catcher. Choosing not to block pitches is a quick way to not be a catcher, and for some players that's a way not to be in the majors for long.
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Alright, that seems like a good place to stop. The rain persists as I check out the window. The home stand resumes Tuesday with the Kansas City Royals in town. A tidy little two-game series to end the home stand and catapult the Cardinals into a four-game series against the reigning division champs, the Milwaukee Brewers. The season is still gaining its legs, its rhythm. That road trip will be a good one for the Cardinals to find their stride, and this start to the season is a chance to feast on teams that are toward the bottom of the table. The pitching must be better for them to do it.Nolan Arenado is the NL player of the week. He's the third Cardinal to win the award in the past four weeks of the award being given (O'Neill, Bader won it late last season).The chat will be here next Monday as the Cardinals return to Florida for a series in Miami.Check out the expanded minor-league coverage on Pinch Hits. And continue to expect comprehensive coverage in the pages of the Post-Dispatch, not mention the weekly hearings here in the Cardinals chat at StlToday.com.Stay tuned. Stay informed. Stay healthy.
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