Join Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold for his live chat at noon Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to Monday’s noon live chat.
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Adam Wainwright nearly doubled his salary. Matz, Dickerson, Pujols, Wittgren, VerHagen are another $20m. Nolan Arenado went from zero on the Cardinals payroll -- his salary was deferred or paid by Rockies -- and now makes $29m on the current payroll. Adds up pretty quick when Arenado's salary joins the payroll.
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I appreciate when you answered the previous question about the Cardinals model of consistency over peaks and valleys that you were trying to convey the Cardinals point of view. My question is why can’t the model evolve? When Walt Jocketty was the GM he gave the Cardinals a competitive edge by picking up salary’s. Look at players like Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker. Mr. Dewitt realized their was an influx of money coming. That meant small market teams wouldn’t necessarily have to trade high end players, and high end players were going to become more expensive. Only the largest markets could spend to stay in contention. So the Cardinals got ahead of the curve. They saw a change in the league and adjusted. The league has changed again in the last 5-7 years. Tank and rebuild is painful, but it can be done to great success. Just making the playoffs isn’t enough to win anymore. I know the Braves made a comment like that, but look at the in season trades they made. The team they had at the end was better than what accumulated a great deal of their in season record. Why could Cardinals ownership acknowledge a change in the mid 2000’s, but ignore the changes that have happened now?
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That's a fair question. The Cardinals have established a brand that they contend every year. They say it. Fans expect it. Players sign on because of it. Arenado sought them out because of it. There is a sense within the walls of Busch Stadium that the fan base could not stomach two steps back to maybe take one step forward -- and the tank/rebuild isn't exactly a guarantee. The Cubs did it, got a title, but now where are they? Doing it again? There are a handful of teams that have tried the tank-and-go model and just never went. Have we heard from the Tigers recently? Anyone know where the Pirates are in their tank-to-go plans? Anyone? How are the Reds looking? The Cardinals see staying steady as the best way to maximize their chances of winning in the postseason because of the increasing randomness of the postseason. It worked for the Braves. And you make a good example. But what did the Braves do with outfielders that the Cardinals didn't do with starting pitching? Atlanta was trying to survive and field an outfield so they traded for an injured player and they traded for several players having down years. Sounds a lot like what the Cardinals did to get Lester, Happ, and to a lesser degree LeBlanc. Lots of parallels there -- except how it ended.The Braves aren't the only team that wants to contend constantly and see what happens when they get in. That's also the model employed by the Brewers, who are arguably doing it much better than the Cardinals. That's also the Rays model. It's how the Yankees talk, much to the consternation of their fan base. And -- wait for it -- it's where the Cubs want to get. That is their goal. They're taking another step back in order to try to get to where the Cardinals are -- and stay there.If tank to win was a guarantee, more teams would do it, but then it wouldn't work either, and it's not a guarantee. The Orioles exist.
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They have made plays for some of the hitters who came to the majors from Asia, but have not completed the deals. They finished behind the Twins and Pirates in bidding for recent hitters, and this past few winters the free agents coming from Asia are at positions the Cardinals have already committed dollars or playing time -- and you know how they are about what they've committed to doing in the outfield. So, recently, the available players haven't lined up with what the Cardinals are pursuing. Not sure if that changes. But since a team is always on the lookout for pitching and not always on the lookout for a third baseman or outfielder, you can see why it's more likely they continue to sign pitching from Korea and Japan, and then selectively make plays for hitters that appeal to them.
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DG, I know you are someone who values facts over baseless assertions, so I have come prepared to back my point that making a meaningful move at the deadline is not optional but essential for any team serious about a deep playoff run. Here are the last six seasons (omitting 2020) of World Series participants and their in-season/deadline moves that helped propel them there. Every team, save for the 2019 Nationals, made a move for a contributing player to the everyday line-up/rotation/bullpen:
2015:
Mets: Yoenis Cespedes, Tyler Clippard
Rays: Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist
2016
Cubs: Adrolis Chapman & Mike Montgomery
Guardians: Andrew Miller, Coco Crisp
2017:
Dodgers: Yu Darvish, Tony Watson, Tony Cigrani, Curtis Granderson
Astros: Justin Verlander, Tyler Clippard
2018:
Dodgers: Manny Machado, Brian Dozier, John Axford
Red Sox: Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler, Nathan Eovaldi
2019:
Nationals: Daniel Hudson
Astros: Zack Grienke
2021:
Braves: Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Jorge Solar, Adam Duvall
Astros: Kendall Graveman
By comparison here are the Cardinals transactions during that same time frame (excluding players who did not appear in MLB game that season):
2015: Brandon Moss, Steve Cishek, Johnathan Broxton
2016: Zach Duke
2017: N/A
2018: Tyler Webb, Seth Elledge, Tyler Ross, Justin Williams, Genesis Cabrera
2019: Tony Cingrani
2021: Jon Lester, JA Happ, T.J. MacFarland, Luis Garcia
Conclusion: the best way to reduce the randomness of the post-season is to reinforce your talent and not be over-reliant on luck. -
Agreed. Let's not overdramatize the moves that the Braves made -- but respect them for being aggressive and addressing a need in a variety of ways. There are similarities with what the Cardinals did at the deadline, too. That said, the lack of action at the deadline is one way the Cardinals have left themselves exposed. They don't get that depth jolt, that change in look, and that booster rocket toward October, and they've been left lacking now for years in the playoffs. I think you make a strong case, and it's one that does stand out for what the Cardinals have not done to add to what they have.That said, it's tricky to say this team isn't built to win the division because they haven't played a day of the season and there's still four months before the August 2 trade deadline.If they are in position to win the division on Aug. 2 and don't do something to enhance their chances beyond the end of September, then they'll invite ample criticism for a dull deadline. Another dull deadline. Again.
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Your choice. The Cardinals never expected to put Flaherty on the 60-day injured list until they know he won't be back for two months. They don't know this at the moment. That's partially because he's only now starting his throwing program, but also because they have to see how his arm responds to treatment.If there's anything that I can pass along it's this: Injuries can be hard to diagnosis. We, as media, should not oversimplify this by playing doctors in print. There are many examples of teams who believe a pitcher is dealing with something, but the root cause is another injury that is spotted along the way. Treat one, another emerges. Also, surgery is not the fix-all, cure-all, surefire answer. Surgery is to be avoided. You can probably mention dozens of pitchers who have returned from Tommy John surgery and not to many that haven't. Which is the point. It's not 100% effective. It's a remarkable surgery that it's close. But you don't remember the names of the pitchers who weren't able to regain their form because of just that -- they weren't able to regain their form. Surgery is meant to be avoided, and sometimes you'll see treatment plans and diagnoses done to avoid surgery for as long as possible. That's not because surgery isn't likely or that the injury was underestimated, they just want to try all alternatives first.I'm not saying that's the case with Flaherty. I'm just trying to pass this information along because I hope that it's something I've helped readers understand with my coverage.
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Negotiations happen at their own pace for individual players. O'Neill is represented by Scott Boras, and he's not adverse to signing over free-agent years, but also not keen on saying a contract should mirror arbitration. He wants market value for his player earlier in the extension, so it's not the same setup as Bader's deal, which does mirror arbitration, growing in value if Bader plays more.
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