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In 2022 the Cardinals will have the flexibility to chase a pricey player, although I can't imagine the team getting somebody at the extreme high end even then. In 2021 the team is still looking at staggering revenue losses -- compared to 2019 and previous seasons -- so I don't see the team doing a deficit-spending in '21 just because they will have some bad contracts off the books in '22. Bill DeWitt Jr. has never, ever, ever, ever operated that way. Nor do I see the team doing anything exciting with the money saved if Molina and Wainwright end up elsewhere. -
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It's a big gamble owning and running a pro sports franchise, there are other ways billionaires can make more money. I wish I knew from personal experience. It has to be something that the owner enjoys. That said, I can see the Cardinals take a bit of a risk that at least half the season will have full stands and make some buying commitments for talent. Vaccines are coming. Yadi and Waino returning and one more stud bat in the lineup should reliably generate the excitement needed to fill the seats when allowed. Buying when other people are selling is one way billionaires get rich, isn't it?
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DeWitt just absorbed a $135 million revenue hit on lost gate revenue. And no matter what he spends on the 2021, attendance will be limited to COVID-19. For him there is little upside in running up bigger operating losses this season. The time to spend will be 2022, when the team will have a chance to monetize an upgraded roster.
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Interested in your take on trade value. Which side of this trade would you rather be on... D Carlson for Jack Flaherty. Granted Flaherty has had a spectacular half season and Carlson has great potential. Would it take two Carlson's for one Flaherty? If so, both Seattle and Atlanta have essentially the equivalent of two Carlson's. Would you do that?
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A great young pitcher always has more value that a promising young outfielder. So you always take the pitcher, injury risk and all. If you knew that Carlson was the Next Christian Yelich maybe that changes the equation. But right now Dylan might just be a pretty good outfielder. (The Cardinals have given away pretty good outfielders like so many bite-sized Snickers bars on Halloween, but that's another topic.)
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Jeff,
Despite all the mistakes and "mismanagement" of assets (as you objectively described it) the Cardinals remain competitive due to good pitching depth and solid defense.
Until the bar is raised on performace for Front Office and for the team (making the playoffs is not enough) I don't see them making many changes like in terms up upping the ante on players, and going all in at the deadline for an extended playoff run.
That being the case, would they be better off unloading unwanted assets (Martinez, excess outfielders, excess pitching depth, etc) to create a better core of future players with prospects, etc.
If they can't see that O'Neill is not an impact player and Arozerena is - love Joe' Buck's comments on that trade during the World Series and gee, thanks Mo for acknowleding a blatant mistake - that might be harder than we think but I would start with teams like the Angels who desparately need pitching, plus the Jays and Phillies who desparately want to more relevant and invest more now.
Load up on hold on to the good young power pitchers - Flaherty, Oviedo, Liberatore, (Alcantare and Gallen hurt now more than ever) etc and good young hitting prospects because that will help you get deeper into the playoffs.
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I can see trading Carlos Martinez for a host of reasons. If he can fetch a hitting propect, great. Otherwise hold on to the young pitching this year to see how it shakes out. Eventually the team will have to make decisions on the 40-man roster and such as players run out of options, but now is not the time to do that. If it becomes obvious that Jack Flaherty isn't going to sign here for the long haul, then next winter might be the time to shop him IF Dakota Hudson makes it back, Alex Reyes and Johan Oviedo pan out and Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson prove to be legit.
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Count me out on anything Arenado. We have a "Luke Voit equivalent" or two that are within a couple years of arrival at 3b and will come with X years of salary control. By comparison, I would much rather have the first half of Pujols career than the second half. I realize Arenado is younger than the Pujols that left ST L, but conceptually, the league has spoken loudly that salary controlled all star players are worth more than gold. Let's keep the gold mine active.
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Jeff saw your sarcastic nerdboy comment about the analysts and goldy. those analysts have been far more on target than the "koolaid drinkers " who have kept talking about the cards of and their offensive potential for the last 2 years. The offense has been anemic and they have been correct. No reason to believe their projections are wrong for a player whosse trend lines have gone down each of last 3 years
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Actually has been quite a bit of writtng in the nerdboy journals about the "Cardinals Devil Magic" of exceeding won-loss projections. I believe this year the projections were spot on -- analysts liked the Reds, but had then lumped into a pile with the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers. The projections gave the Cardinals a chance to slip into the expanded playoff bracket, which they did despite the doubleheader strain.
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Coach Drink has exceeded my expectations for Year 1. Right away he proved he could recruit -- but then he proved he could find ways to win games different ways under tough circumstances. Try as he might, Barry Odom could not quite get there.As for the basketball team, the key to this season was seeing actual improvement from the incumbents. Xavier Pinson made strides last season, but too many guys regressed. This year Timon and Pickett are off to encouraging starts, as is Mark Smith after getting healthy. The quicker tempo proved that Cuonzo Martin is capable to adjusting to his personnel. His time speaking with NBA coaches this summer was well-spent. Now the team has the semblance of an offense. The fact the Tigers didn't buckle against Oregon when the game momentum shifted showed the maturity you should expect from a veteran team.The Ducks were shorthanded Wednesday, so the Tigers actually caught a break. Then Dana Altman refused to call off his press even though the Tigers beat it over and over and over easy baskets.After all the bad luck Martin has endured, he was overdue to catch a break. Now let's see if the team can build some more confidence and momentum.
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Gordo, you seem to be certain the Cards could get something for CMart and still dump his salary, unless I misunderstand you. If the Cards have not been able to trade him to date, how can they now, with a lay strain and a disastrous 2020? The best play is paying him in 2021 and trying to get the most out of him.
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There are a few teams looking to spend real money these days, led by the New York Mets. Carlos is making mid-level money for a starting pitcher. He doesn't require a long-term commitment and his track records as a starter and reliever were fairly strong until last season. Maybe teams will want to see him pitch in the spring before making a bid on him. But trading him won't as hard as, say, trading Matt Carpenter.
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It appears the Rockies are in serious trouble if they didn't give Dahl an offer. Rumor has it that Arenado wants out. Isn't this a dream scenario for the Cards to get "door buster" deal on a bonafide superstar? I know the Cards are wanting to save money, would they not pursue a deal too good to pass up, even if it costs some? Thanks!
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When I read these chats that are so negative on Mo and the FO without acknowledging that it's difficult to compete with the 29 other organizations that are also talented, committed, and funded to beat you, I just shake my head. This isn't exhibition baseball like the Harlem Globetrotters are to basketball. The rest of the league isn't there to lose to us in entertaining fashion. We're consistently over 500 which is statistically a very significant piece of evidence that we're very very good at what we (whole organization) do. By the way, a fun story to research is the one game that the Globetrotters actually lost...or did they. Homage to Bob Gibson, former Globetrotter.
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Colorado might be willing to take Martinez and a bad contract for one year to unload all of that Arenado money until 2026. But like I always note, now the Cardinals would be paying a guy giant long-term money for his twilight years to play the one position your best hitting prospects play. So If I'm the GM, I do not make that deal.
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And the old addage goes ( l'm paraphrasing here ) : better to let someone go a year early than a year to late. I love both Yadi and Waino but with little or no fans why spend the money ? I would rather remember how Waino ( Yadi not as much in 2020 ) performed at 39 in 2020 than 8 million dollars that can get someone who can hit a breaking ball