Join baseball writer Daniel Guerrero for his live Cardinals chat at 11 a.m. Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to Monday’s 11 a.m. live chat.
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That's right. He'd be 21.Players signed before the age of 18 or younger become Rule 5 draft eligible if they are not on a team's 40-man roster within five seasons. Jonathan Mejia (signed at 16) would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft as a 21-year-old in 2026 if he isn't on the Cardinals' 40-man roster by that point.
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I think a role on a Class Low-A pitching staff is the likely scenario for the two to start the year. Neither got into a minor-league game after the draft. But given that both have pitched at the college level, a start at Low-A and then movement to a higher affiliate based on their progress would make sense.
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Like I mentioned with Jordan Walker and Gordon Graceffo, performance could determine where Masyn Winn. Keeping opportunities in spring training open for the prospects on the rise was something the Cardinals' front office made clear.Need might also play a role depending on the Cardinals' options in the middle infield.
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What's you view on McGreevy. Like an earlier question, can he be ready for the rotation when there should be some openings in 2024? There could be as many as 4, but more likley to be 2 or 3 openings. Liberatore, McGreevy and Graceffo seem the most likely competitors. Maybe Thomas or Thompson if they turn him back into a starter. Pallante also.
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Michael McGreevy has shown some maturity in the way he pitches and handles adversity. He throws a lot of strikes and rarely issues walks. His 5.1% walk rate and 49.8% ground ball rate were some of the best in minor-league baseball. During stretches where he has struggled, he's seemed to handle it well. He'll need some more seasoning against more advanced hitters and time to continue developing his secondary pitches, so 2024 might not be too far off for a projection of getting to the majors.The future of the Cardinals' rotation is interesting given who they would have under control heading into the next couple of years. Obviously, a lot can change, but Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, and McGreevy are names that will be around and ones that will have time to show what they can do by then.Zack Thompson has seemingly found himself a role in the bullpen barring injuries to starters. Connor Thomas is an intriguing name because of his success in the Arizona Fall League and another who seems like a candidate for a bullpen role. Andre Pallante obviously had success out of the bullpen and showed some glimpses of success as a starter.Looking ahead, the Cardinals do have internal options in the starting pitching department.
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Hi Daniel,
I see near term MLB talent in pitching (McGreevy, Hjerpe, Libertore, Graceffo) and bats across the Diamond (Walker, Winn, Herrera). With some far away guys like Hence, Baez, Mejia, what do you think is the farm systems biggest weakness currently? Or what does the FO see it as? -
Like you said, there is some depth in the Cardinals' farm system in some areas across the diamond and the mound. The one area I would say there isn't as much depth in is at the corner infield spots.There's obviously no glaring need for that at the majors when you have the reigning NL MVP at one corner and a 10-time Gold Glover winner at the other. But looking at the roster lineups at the Cardinals' affiliates, I see that as the areas where there isn't much depth.
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I'm probably the least qualified Post-Dispatch baseball writer to talk about Hall of Fame chances and voting considering I'm so new, but Scott Rolen is trending in the right direction when it comes to getting the 75% of votes needed to be inducted. He got 63.2% last year.If that doesn't come in the next few weeks, I'd imagine 2024 would finally be the year for Rolen.
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Daniel,
Now that you have a year under your belt, can you explain the affiliates you saw in person and how you go about choosing which affiliate to visit/when? Do you watch the games remotely? How does covering multiples teams per day work exactly?
Also, do you have a favorite uniform in the organization yet?
Thanks for great coverage this year! -
I was able to make it to Springfield and Memphis last season, along with going to spring training and spending time in the back fields there in Jupiter. Usually whatever is going on at the affiliates determines where I'll be heading.Covering multiple teams often requires eyes on multiple games, rewatching some games and performances by certain players, and making some phone calls.Favorite uniform is probably the Saturday home jerseys. Those are clean. The Sunday alternate hats are also nice.
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Workload will be increased gradually for Tink Hence. How much of an increase it will be is something I'm not so sure of.How deep he goes into games in 2023 could continue to increase with how his year goes. Because Hence is someone who was drafted out of high school, and limited to just eight innings before the start of 2022, the approach was cautious with him.
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Where does Thompson settle in at the ML level in '23 and beyond? It sure seemed like he had Starter's stuff when given the chance and at some point 1-2 of these young guys have to take control of spots in the rotation, especially if the team is going to pay an ace in the next 12 months.
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Zack Thompson seems to be set in a bullpen role heading into 2023. Oliver Marmol spoke about the competition for some rotation spots next year and mentioned Thompson as someone who would get a look for starting job only if injuries hold others back.There will be some competition for the spots on the back end of the rotation that will have some of the younger guys will compete for given the current rotation.
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I think both Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman as fits for that left-handed DH role. And it's easy to see considering both have had success in the minors with the bat and both are still working to improve on defense.I also feel like both provide different at-bats depending on what you'd want. With his home run success in the minors, I see Gorman as someone who could provide that if he develops right to major-league pitching and cuts down on the strikeouts that hurt him last season.With Burleson, I see someone who is more prone to get the ball on the ground and can consistently put the ball in play. Both provide solid options.
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Jordan Walker, as he's been described, is a mature hitter for his age. He was tested with playing in Double-A as a 19-year-old and wound up becoming one of the Texas League's most consistent producers. That maturity and ability to adapt showed during the Arizona Fall League.I don't have a comp, but Derrick Goold has written before that Walker draws comparisons to Kris Bryan because of his versatility to play multiple positions, which we've seen Walker do.
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Happy Monday, good scribe.
With Tink Hence showing *very* well in his *very* limited Arizona Fall League opportunities, do you expect him to begin the 2023 season in Double-A now? (Also, he and Graceffo are going to remain starters until they fail at it, right? They won't be rushed to MLB as bullpenners, i.e., given the Jordan Hicks Treatment and ruined just as Hicks was...right? Please reassure me, Daniel.) -
I think Double-A might be a bit high for Tink Hence to start the year based on his workload and experience. He pitched 52 1/3 innings for Low-A Palm Beach and got to the fourth inning of a game six times in his 16 starts. He's 20 years old so there is still a wait on his development and caution because of his previous workload as a high school draftee.Hence and Graceffo should remain in starting roles while in the minors. Although I can't assure your that they won't become a part of a major-league bullpen one day.I also wouldn't describe Jordan Hicks as "ruined." He's 26 and showed some improvements in his walk rate this year compared to 2021. There's still time for him to improve.
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Ian Bedell will certainly benefit from a healthy 2023 season. The Mizzou product has essentially lost three seasons. Two (2021 and 2022) to Tommy John and one (2020) because of a pandemic that canceled all of college sports.Where Bedell begins the 2023 season will be something interesting to watch for.
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You're right in that the object of the game is to allow fewer runs than the other team. But strikeouts can tell a lot about a guy's stuff and his ability to put away hitters.The defense behind you and the ballpark you play in are also things that play a role in ERA. And there's also the eye test.Thanks to some advanced stats like Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), or ERA+, we have better tools to evaluate if a guy had a good ERA because he had an outstanding defense behind him, or if his inflated ERA was a product of his ballpark.I don't think there's too much weight. I just feel like we should consider all of the data that we have now.
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Like the other DG, I am not a Cards fan. I grew up in Anaheim so I didn't grow up watching the Cardinals.I do support the Mexican national futbol team (it's futbol/football not soccer), Atlas (who are in Liga MX) and San Diego State men's basketball (where I went to school). I don't think I'll ever cover those teams so I feel little more comfortable supporting them.
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The pitcher that could fit this description might be Tink Hence. His ability to touch the high 90s and rear back to touch as high as 99 mph has many hopeful for what he might do. The development of his secondary stuff like his changeup and curveball are aspects of his game that some feel is promising for his age.
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DGsquared is fine with me! We'd have to check with the OG DG on that though.I feel like trading can be complicated because prospect development can have many external factors. There's always a question mark as to what a prospect can become. Some might become stars. Others like Jeter Downs who the Red Sox received in the Mookie Betts trade, don't pan out.And on the flip side teams know what they're getting with the MLB player they're receiving, but that doesn't always pan out either. We've seen both sides of that with the Cardinals like in the Arenado trade and in the Alcantara trade. The Cardinals received a proven star and dealt someone who is a rising star.
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It seems the cardinals are great at producing a strong mlb pipeline with prospect not considered “top 100” types. Then when we get the top 50 “blue chip” types they seems to struggle. Carlson, Gorman, Rasmus. How important is it for the franchise to get a truly impactful bat from their minor leagues. The last one had to be Matt Carpenter.
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I think developing an impact bat through the minors is especially important for clubs that are reluctant to make big moves in free agency or trade for impact players. Although the Cardinals have not had that homegrown bat since Matt Carpenter, to their credit, they've been able to acquire them in trades (i.e. Arenado and Goldschmidt).But yes, it's been a while since the Cardinals have had that come through their system. Before Carpenter, you have to go back to Albert Pujols as the last impact bat that came from the farm. Part of finding that prospect and developing them also has to do with where the Cardinals are drafting. They haven't had a top-15 pick since 2008.
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There definitely were some quality players on the shortstop market this offseason and last offseason.If Masyn Winn becomes the shortstop the Cardinals hope he can be, would they have missed that boat? Prospects aren't guaranteed to live up to expectations, but the Cardinals feel like they have something special with Winn.
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The Cardinals seem to have options rising in the system when it comes to solid starting pitching that can give quality innings during the season. Somewhat arbitrary, but let's call these 3-5 guys in the rotation. They seem to be missing an obvious elite 1-2 prospect.
Do you agree, and do you have anyone you could tell us about that might break out into that level. Let's say those at high A and above? -
There are options for depth in a rotation as you said. However, the hype of a clear-cut ace within the Cardinals system does seem to be missing. Gordon Graceffo has seemingly positioned himself as the organization's top pitching prospect. He has some qualities of being a top rotation guy, but he saw a dip in his strikeout rate and showed signs that the workload of a full season took its toll.Tink Hence, who is likely still years away from the majors, might be that guy next year. We'll know more of his potential once we see him handle more innings.
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Alright, that seems like a good place to stop today's chat.Thanks to everyone for joining and for following our Cardinals coverage here at STL Today and in the Post-Dispatch! Stay tuned in for more Cardinals content throughout the offseason.Happy holidays!- Daniel Guerrero