Join baseball writer Derrick Goold for his live Cardinals chat at 11 a.m. Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to Monday’s 11 a.m. live chat.
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I don't know. You can ask 10 people who are agents or execs and five will say they expect some pace to the offseason and five will say they don't think much will happen till the winter meetings if then.Every year it's pretty similar, honestly. There are these weeks of awards and roster moves, and there aren't many signings in that time, there are some trades due to the roster needs, and to avoid losing players or gaining a player as the Cardinals did without having to bid on him in the open market. That stuff happens every year at this time and delays the big moves on free agents because it's priming the roster for those moves and meeting deadlines for the roster protections.Maybe MLB needs to establish a signing window, or a signing deadline and create the frenzy other teams have because it sure seems that fans want MLB to act like NBA or NFL, and it's just not set up that way.Why?Blame the hot stove. The notion of it. MLB wants to be in the headlines all winter. One way to do that is have a prolonged free agent period that does leave gaps that are filled by speculation and wishcasting.
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I see what you did there. What you saw was the coverage of what they were likely going to do. They did get in touch with some other candidates -- Charlie Montoya, for example -- but it's not clear how far that conversation went beyond just reaching out until Montoya took the bench coach job on the South Side. Holliday was the target from the start. The promotion of Blake was likely from the start.Why wouldn't I just cover it that way? Don't you expect the coverage to be honest?
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I'm as concerned as anyone about Jacob DeGrom's durability...but with the depth we have, I wonder if he's still worth signing? I would guess he's going to command a contract comparable to Scherzer's - less years and more AAV. The Cardinals should have the depth to baby him throughout the season with the goal of having him healthy for August through October, and all he costs is money (albeit lots of it). Thoughts?
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I think you've made a compelling case, and yes high AAV short years. That's where it seems like his market is headed. But it's high high high AAV. Whopper stuff. Eager to see what team makes that move. I tend to think that his preference will be a big driver here. If he wants to get close to home, if he wants to have spring training close to home, if there's a market he wants to be in -- he's going to have such a wide spectrum of deals to explore, sure seems like a tiebreaker may be where he wants to actually be.
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What is the Cardinals perception of Wynn's proximity to the majors, and to what extent will that perception, combined with the presence of Edman, Donovan, and Gorman, cause them to lean away from pursuing a free agent SS? Or would the acquisition of one of the free agent SS just make Gorman, Edman, and/or Donovan more available in a different trade?
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The Cardinals plan to have Masyn Winn be the starting shortstop/priority shortstop at Class AAA Memphis this coming season, and that puts him a step away from the majors. So, yeah, that's a factor in how the Cardinals look at the shortstop position. However, shortstops are versatile and can move other places when the need or production demands that, and that goes for the shortstops at the major-league level, too. If the Cardinals have two, three players who are the best options for the lineup and all three can play shortstop, then the Cardinals can find spots for them by moving the players elsewhere, choosing the best or most reliable fielder, and go from there. That's a spot they would relish being.If Jordan Walker is on deck for the majors, Winn is at the top step of the dugout, his helmet in his hand. That's close.
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They felt he made strides in that direction. They recognize it will be more demanding for him, for sure, and that's on their mind, especially as Donovan's performance has him getting a grip on second base. Gorman turned the double play well. He had good first steps, and he did alright on the move. Could improve in those latter categories, and that's necessary without the shift for sure. It's a factor in their choices.
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Would Jack Flaherty be a possible trade candidate? If the Cardinals are unsure of their ability to keep him after this year, or could move him for a younger starter with more years of control, would that be something they'd look at doing? You would have to weigh that value versus what you may get value wise from a qualifying offer pick. Just spitballing, I realize Jack's health would weigh heavily into this and may make a deal like that unlikely.
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The Cardinals would not be trading at a time to get peak return, and they would be trading at a point -- as you outline -- where they know the minimal return they'd have to get. It would have to be equivalent of the draft pick they'd get if Flaherty has a strong year and turns down a qualifying offer. Tough spot to make a trade. They would need to find a team that would dream about Flaherty's upside, count on his health, and trade for six months of what they're convinced will be the second-half Flaherty of 2019. Big ask for the team interested. Hard to see how the Cardinals would get the return that would make it worthwhile, vs. just getting the performance from Flaherty for 30 starts.
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A couple of quick things:-- MLB doesn't have a cap. There is a luxury tax threshold and it acts as a soft cap, but there is no cap in place in MLB. And the Cardinals are not close to the tax threshold.-- Not all of the money counts against the Cardinals' payroll, just most of it. There's some rebate because of inflation/interest, so the present day value of the $10 million they owe down the road is not $10 million. And that gap -- say $2 million, maybe more -- is the benefit. It's just not the full amount deferred. Hope that helps.And, yes, Charlie Morton will make $20 million in 2023 for Atlanta. Adam Wainwright and Morton are comparable, right down to the stats and experience and all of it, and it's entirely fair to suggest that Wainwright would get close to Morton on the open market.
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Derrick, The Cards do need a bat for the middle of the lineup. Agree 100%. You also have eloquently pointed out in prior writings that there are stresses put on a lineup when other parts of a lineup don't produce. The Cards will be attempting to incorporate youth in the lineup. It's a must to their existence, their system. Seems a catcher that can hit better say at a 2022 Danny Jansen level could allow a bat to either go through a slump or cost far less, say a Bogaerts instead of a Correa.
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It would help. Another example of how the Cardinals could get a bat that would allow production elsewhere to be a bonus, what turns them into just a flat out titan, not one that is necessary for them to contend. Let the bat from some of these other positions be a bonus.
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Interesting. Yes, the team that would be acquiring DeJong would want the Cardinals to cover his salary down to a point of what they are counting on him being. If that's a utility player off the bench, then you're talking about a significant amount of money being covered. And that seems like what the new team and Cardinals could count on. That's a role that is handled by a 0-3 player, maybe a first-year arbitration player? And without that salary coverage the team trading for him does not have to offer much. Think back to when the Cardinals traded Skip Schumaker to the Dodgers and the Class AA infielder who came in return.
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Flaherty, Mikolas, Montgomery, Matz, Wainwright, Connor Thomas, Hudson, Woodford, Pallante, Liberatore, Thompson and VerHagen make up a long list of potential starters with which to open ST. It's hard for me to see the Cardinals chasing a FA pitcher (or trading for one) unless they trade more than one of these away.
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Sounds exactly like what I heard from the Cardinals this past week. Asked Mozeliak if there was any thought of trading Montgomery before he hits the salary increase, and Mozeliak suggested the salary that Montgomery is bound for is good value for the production the Cardinals expect to get from him. So, there's that. That sets expectations.
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I can only go with what I can confirm and what my reporting shows, not what speculation is out there elsewhere. As you know, there is a difference between a beat writer and a columnist and a columnist and an anchor. All different disciplines in journalism. You can read up on shortstop market and the Cardinals here:
As MLB rules shift, star shortstops hit free agency. Enticing? Cardinals have short answer.
STLtoday.comConsensus among baseball execs is that banning shifts will put premium on middle-infield defense at a time when "generational" talents are available. -
Hey Derrick, checked out your most recent BPIB and it brought up a question I've never asked but still can't wrap my head around when people talk about the Cubs.
Can you explain why the Cubs can't be a powerhouse, spending with the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers? They are the the premier baseball franchise in one of the largest markets in the country with a world wide brand. How they can at least not act like the Mets? A secondary franchise in a predominate market. How do they get away with this "building things right" mantra to the point where it seems like not only have they convinced their fans that they don't have the money, but the media covering them has bought in to some extent to. In my eyes, they could very easily (and repeatedly) spend their way into competing in a pretty consistently mediocre division and still make plenty of money. -
I cannot. I keep waiting for it. They don't act like it. One element of it now is they own their TV/broadcast partner and so they share in the cost, too, and will some day have great benefits from it, maybe even some day soon. But the Cubs have Wrigley, have the buildings around Wrigley, have the sportsbook coming in, and have their own TV station. If they're not a spending behemoth in years to come with stars to show for it, ala Philadelphia, then the only reasons would be a) they can get away with it from their fans or b) mismanagement. They should be a rival to Philly if not to the teams you mention.
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