Join baseball writer Derrick Goold for his live Cardinals chat at 11 a.m. Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to Monday’s 11 a.m. live chat.
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He must have heard something for Mozeliak that he accepted and felt encouraged by, and when some corner of the fan base hears the same thing, they're not as thrilled or happy. It's entirely possible -- brace yourself -- that some people on Twitter have a different opinion than a 10-time Gold Glove winner about the immediate future of the Cardinals.
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It seems like part of the issue with the Cardinals developing impact bats is that players with potential don’t reach that potential or if they are on that trajectory, it’s fleeting. I wonder if there are two big factors at play, Busch Stadium and it’s cavernous power alleys, and the team always having the next wave coming so young players are always looking over their shoulders. Would you agree these could be factors?
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Busch Stadium for sure. The other one -- looking over their shoulder -- not so much. Baseball is a competitive sport and it's a competitive business and every player is looking over his shoulder until he gets a contract that secures some of that playing time. It's just a given in the game, in the industry. There is always someone coming for your job.
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I can promise you that they won't say that, and I can urge you not to believe it when someone does, and I know as a reporter if they say it I won't be quoting it. It's disingenuous and readers deserve better. That said, it does not guarantee they'll be successful getting that third bat.
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I feel like I know the potential trade market for catchers, but less so for power hitters (esp LH), top of the rotation starters, or other strikeout pitchers. What are the names to pay attention to on the trade market in those areas? Specifically, are there top-of-the-rotation arms that the Cardinals could explore trading for?
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That's the issue the Cardinals currently have. That's not a great market for trades. That's the thing. You could be well-read on that market so far and not see those names. I've asked around and the options just aren't revealing themselves. Cody Bellinger comes up, but there's no guarantee that's where the Dodgers are going to be looking. This is something that is going to dominate a lot of the conversations in the coming weeks, it seems, just trying to see after tomorrow's deadline what rosters look like and what possible unexpected, Montgomery-like moves might be out there to explore.
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My opinion: Brandon Nimmo picked an excellent time to have a career year to maximize his earning potential and land with a team that thinks he'll be able to repeat that. Bully for him. Superb timing to create good buzz and a strong salary. If I were on a team considering that, I would suggest we could count on the superb defense, but tread cautiously when it comes to paying him to repeat the offense he just had.
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I understand your point and it's a fair one. That's why I suggested that they have to weigh the value of that spot -- protecting a prospect or losing that prospect. Let's work through this. If you think that Connor Thomas is going to contribute to the Cardinals more in the next six years (or more) than Alex Reyes is going to for the next six months, then you consider the benefit of giving that roster spot to Thomas and not paying Reyes the nearly $3 million and the cost of that roster spot.That's an extreme example but it's an example.You do the same with the other players you mentioned. Examine the cost of giving up that player (DeJong it would be paying his full salary; Reyes and Stratton it would be nothing) and the benefit of who is getting that spot (Fermin is necessary, they feel, for middle infield depth at Class AAA, and that has value to them).Hope that helps, and you can frame your argument from there.Trust me, they're wrestling with the same question.
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Andrew Knizner is a career 306 hitter with an 836 OPS in his 4 minor league seasons. Is there any hope he can get to be the level of a 275 average and 750 OPS in the majors? He has shown flashes of offensive upside but for whatever reason he's been mostly lost offensively. His defensive metrics are not that good either. Maybe he's not a ML catcher but could be a major league hitter if he switched positions? Has the team shared any opinions with you on him?
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Yes. He can. And the Cardinals believe that's part of it. They do see a situation where the lack of playing time over the past few years have gummed-up Knizner's timing at the plate and the full blossoming of his ability as a hitter. That's a concern for them. But he's also got to catch well enough to be in there consistently. It's a, ahem, Catch 22. The Cardinals and their coaches do see a contributing hitter in Knizner, even a strong hitter for the position of catcher. A shift to another position obviously changes that, because there aren't corner spots where .750 OPS is the goal, right? But at catcher ... he'd be above average. That would be a strong boost. And the question/quandary/dilemma the Cardinals have and have had and have put themselves in is if they've cost him prime development time at the plate by not getting him regular play behind the pltae.
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Thanks for the chat, Derrick.
Here's some fun Sean Murphy/Willson Contreras trivia. The erstwhile Cub is the distinctly better bat, while the Oakland backstop is the better defender, right? Well, it could be that Murphy is underrated at the plate and Contreras just the opposite. In their home parks, Willson has a career .847 OPS, while Murph is murdered by his, with a .684. On the road, for their careers? Contreras .773. And Murphy .820, which translates to a 132 OPS+. In other words, there's a meaningful chance that by trading for Murphy the Cards could sneakily add the "big bat" people crave, while solidifying the catcher position for the next three years. -
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The use of the word "literal" here suggest you're asking if I've ever seen Mozeliak throw up. I have not. I have how every seen him go past the point he's comfortable to sign a free agent, and I've seen that leave him queasy for years to come and influence other decisions.
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Jake Woodford would be a good player for a team to try and trade for this winter. Going to get a motivated pitcher off the Cardinals' development tree and a good chance he'll be far better for a team that lets him flourish. And, sure, yes, he makes sense for a club like Oakland. A lot to like when it comes to acquiring Woodford.
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The Cardinals got -0.6 WAR from the catcher position this year. Sean Murphy was a 5 WAR player, with the field of other options all clocking in about 2-3 WAR less (Contreras 3.3, Jansen 2.6, Vasquez 1.6). By contrast, Edman, our incumbent starting SS, was a 5.6 WAR player, only about .5 WAR behind Turner, Swanson, and Bogaerts and over 1 WAR over Correa. Meanwhile, Donovan delivered 2.7 WAR as a UTIL and leading 2b candidate next year. What I'm saying is...it seems like trading for Murphy adds the most wins to this team, by about a 2 win margin compared to the other catching options and the SS options, based on the value he'd be replacing. Am I analyzing this right?
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Sure. That's a good way to look at it. And it's worth noting that this is how the Cardinals can improve at catcher in so many ways. From a recent story I wrote:"In 2022, the Cardinals’ catching group that included Molina, returning backup Andrew Knizner, and prospect Ivan Herrera combined to hit .208 with a .290 slugging percentage. The catchers, as a group, produced in the bottom five for their position in the majors. They had the second-fewest strikeouts (117) but only 118 hits. The Cardinals’ combined catcher OPS of .553 ranked third-lowest, just behind World Series champ Houston’s .557. Contreras’ .815 OPS this past season to go with four seasons of at least 20 home runs would be a significant boost, but it would come at the cost of defense."It's one of the reasons why a move for a defense-first catcher still makes sense because the upgrade is going to be there offensively if the catcher is just average.Christian Vazquez had a 2.2 WAR for Boston. His RC would have given the Cardinals' lineup a boost from that spot by being more than they got.You can find that story from the Post-Dispatch a week ago here:
Cardinals catch up on market for Molina's replacement, know they won't 'fill Yadi's shoes'
STLtoday.comMozeliak and his staff explore trade possibilities for catcher, such as Toronto and A's, and free agents (Contreras, Vazquez) at GM meetings, knowing one outcome: It will be different. -
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I keep bringing this up, year after year after year, and there are members of the front office that push back, year after year after year, but I'll stand by it: Certainty is the sixth tool.And it cost money.Sure, upside and gamble and betting on getting a lottery ticket might save money and allow for a great flexibility with a payroll, and I get it some teams have to do that, and the Cardinals have to do that some of the time, for sure. They need to strike it with rich in production with a lottery ticket.But certainty matters (in innings, in production, in middle order) and certainty costs.
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If the Dodgers can’t fix Bellinger’s hitting it’s ridiculous to think the Cards can. Just take a hard pass on trying to revive yet another player’s past success and go for someone who has successfully hit in the past two years. He’s too expensive to take that gamble when we have so many other struggling bats.
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Cards view themselves as a draft and develop team. The Braves drafted SP Strider in the 4th round and OF Harris in the 3rd round. Both have had absolutely tremendous breakout rookie seasons. I don’t recall the Cards ever having similar success producing both stellar pitching and stellar hitting.
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It's a fair point because of the hitting aspect. That has not been the case for the Cardinals when it comes to developing and debuting impact hitters. They have not had the thunderous debut by a rookie hitter -- not like a power-packed hitter. But, it's also fair to point out what this season looked like ...Atlanta got 5.3 WAR from Harris, 3.7 WAR from Strider.Cardinals got 4.1 WAR from Donovan, 1.4 WAR from Pallante.Sure there's a gap.And before you rush to point out the difference in roles, please consider that Donovan had more PAs than Harris, 468 to 441, and that Strider pitched 130 innings to Pallante's 108.Out of curiosity, I just wondered how high a bar you've set when it comes to using those WAR totals from Harris and Strider as an measure for when the last time the Cardinals had rookies provide that kind of impact. I dove into the Baseball-Reference.com STATHEAD.The Cardinals went almost two decades without a rookie pitcher putting up a season with a WAR greater than 3.0, and since 1997, they've had four:Jack Flaherty 3.2Shelby Miller 3.5Rick Ankiel 3.3Matt Morris 3.9Far more rare is the rookie position player with a WAR greater than 5.0. It's only happened three times in the past 100 years of Cardinals baseball. So, you're right they really have struggled generation after generation after generation to produce a rookie that gave them that much impact. Donovan's 4.1 WAR is the eighth-highest in club history, per Baseball-Reference, and here are the four rookies who provided a 4.9 WAR or higher:Albert Pujols 6.6Lou Klein 6.5Stan Musial 5.3Rogers Hornsby 4.9Pretty robust company if you're in that group.
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