Join baseball writer Derrick Goold for his live Cardinals chat at 11 a.m. Monday
Bring your Cards questions and comments to Monday’s 11 a.m. live chat.
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Could a higher OBP guy on base before Arenado/Goldy make as much or more sense vs another SLG guy? Turner has some of both, but with SB expected to go up and Busch erasing some homeruns, I see the benefit of a leadoff hitter as much as a power hitter. It would help if there was more certainty of Tyler O returning to 2021 form. -
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Love your comment that "certainty costs" Mr. Goold. With that in mind, and your revelation(to me) that Turner Ward was Bellinger's hitting coach in 2017, maybe the Cardinals could buy low on him, and still pay for that "certainty" in a Goldy/Arenado protector. Just wanted to bring this up, and field your thoughts. Thank you, as always, for being so articulate in your answers. Your coverage of the payroll has been wonderful.
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Thanks for the kind words. The catch with Bellinger is there's nothing cheap about acquiring him. He's owed a significant salary in arbitration, and that could be $17.5 million to $19.5 million, not sure, but it won't be small. So, how do you deal with that. Well, you offer to take on that entire salary and give the Dodgers not much in return, if they're motivated to get out from under that salary, because you know the best they can get is a comp draft pick for him if he leaves the qualifying offer on the table, or they get nothing if they don't offer him a QO. So that's the base of the offer. And then it goes up from there based on how much of the salary LA is willing to eat. Again, it's not a cheap deal -- in cash or in prospects -- but it could be a compelling deal.If we do put it on the certainty scale, however, it's low on the guaranteed return. Except for one thing: Bellinger does play center, does do reasonable damage against right-handed pitching, and those two things are additions the Cardinals could use. He had 36 extra-base hits and 17 homers vs, right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals struggled against right-handed pitchers ...
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Derrick,
Could you ask the front office about their decision last year to not bring in the fences at Busch stadium? With a new focus on strikeout pitching and the long ball, I imagine the stadium dimensions calculus could possibly be changing. Nolan Arenado would have had a home run rather than a long out in the playoffs, too. -
I have asked about this. Had a good talk with Bill DeWitt III about it during the season. Had discussions with other officials as well. A story emerged from those talks. They were concerned about two things1) unintended consequences that they could not accurately project without additional and more widespread study, which they wanted to do.2) how the team was built and conversation about how defense is going to be the cornerstone of their team, run prevention, and that they wanted to do all they could to maximize that, and stick with that. They didn't want to alter the ballpark forever when it might not benefit the rosters they don't yet know they have. But they're sure they've built this one to do better at the ballpark, so why upend it.
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Might be up to him. He's going to explore other possibilities at the moment. The Cardinals and Molina's representatives have had discussions about him being around in spring training as a guest presence at some point. (He won't be there the whole time with the job of running Team Puerto Rico.)There's that's a little tidbit for you if you hung in the chat this long.
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Greetings from across the pond!
Just reading Jason Heyward has been released. Any thoughts in retrospective on that Cubs contract? I loved him in his one year with the Redbirds and was quite sad to see him go, but boy did the Cubs not get what they were hoping for. Have you got any feeling for what lies ahead for him? Could someone (e.g. Matt Holliday) fix his swing? After all he's just 33.
Obviously this wouldn't be a move for someone to rely on , more like a surplus player at low cost who could or could not pan out. Or is the roster spot too valuable? -
Talk about the right guy at the right time with the right skills and at the right age. Jason Heyward as a superb defensive player and athlete with a swing to dream on at a time when defensive metrics were taking over, were more reliable, and the game was lacking a lot of the thump of the previous generation. Plus, he was coming off of a strong season with the Cardinals that included buy-in on what John Mabry was helping him with and a strong offensive upturn that, well, just didn't continue -- whether that was because of the advice Heyward got from his personal hitting coach or from the Cubs or just not being around Mabry, who maybe he connected with. I'm not sure. All of those things along with his age led to a whopper of an offer that usually goes to an offensive All-Star talent. Set the bar high for him, and he just wasn't that slug/damage hitter.What I do know is this ... bottom line .. Heyward was an important part of a team that brought the north side it's first World Series title since 1908, and maybe his rain-delay speech was worth the money. He did contribute on the field and off to a championship, and it's hard to put a price tag on that in hindsight.As far as a reunion? I don't know. Heyward has had some injuries that have contributed to his swing and its snap, and getting that back -- hope it happens. Not sure if what the Cardinals need matches up. We'll see. Should be a non-roster invite to a team that can benefit from the bounce he'll maybe give, but not counting on it.
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He gave them an otherworldly second half, one of the best of his career, so are you getting that as well? Or just something more consistent? He was a huge part of why the Cardinals ran away with the division ... So a second half like that with a better first half, and sure they're contending for a 100-win season. That makes sense. Especially with the pitching additions they made. But goodness -- asking for that second half repeat is a lot.
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I hope they do. Or I hope they explain their sources. I look forward to someone -- perhaps you, or another reader -- pointing out the reporting in the Post-Dispatch to those outlets. They're welcome to refute it or agree with it.I'm confident in my sourcing and research and confirmation.
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Derrick,
Thanks for the chats. If the Cardinals go out and get a high quality bat, a Catcher, and a high strikeout reliever, it looks as though they'll not be able to keep that within the targeted budget, and also have some players making starting money who aren't starting just due to the sheer number of players we are talking about. At some point something has to give. Any sense as to what's going to give? Quality of the players acquired, budget, trading some overlap?
Also, if they trade some redundancy, and part of that trade they have to pay down part of the salary, such as DeJong, how does that get applied to the Salary Cap and targeted budget? -
There are a number of ways to do this:-- First, again, there is no Salary Cap in baseball. It's just not there. There is a luxury tax, and that can act as a soft cap, but the Cardinals aren't close.-- Several of the catchers available via trade are in arbitration or before it, and that will reduce the cost of their salaries for 2023, keep them cost controlled. Heck, even the signing of Vazquez for the coming season would not take up half of the gap that you mention. He made $7 million this past year, and he's prioritized playing time after half a season spent as a backup.-- Some relievers are going for one-year deals.-- At no point in the article, in this chat, or in this conversation as anyone suggested that the Cardinals would not spend above that target if the move was right. That has not been said. I outlined where they expect to grow, not where they expect to stop. They do not plan on going near $200 million for the opening day roster. That's 26 spots on the roster.Hope that helps.
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Cannot do anything with Alex Reyes until he becomes a free agent, and then he'll be open to go anywhere and look for the best option. There's also the chance that he seeks a change of scenery. I heard from one person close to him that maybe that will be best. We'll see.The Cardinals have approached both Miller and Rosenthal about returns in the past, neither has been on the radar from what I can tell this winter. As the winter gets later, would not be surprised if there's a conversation with Rosenthal's agents, if the right-hander is looking for a deal that does not include a roster spot. We'll see. He's done well in recent years and maybe he'll find that same kind of offer again.
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I wish MLB would change the schedule so the Cards and the other NL Central teams played all the teams from the NL East and NL West the same number of times. Next year the Cards play the Dodgers, Giants and Mets 7 games while other teams may only play them 6 games. When just a game or two can be the difference in making the playoffs, MLB should try to make it as fair as possible.
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Just to add context to the Cody Bellinger discussion, he is not as good a CF as Dylan Carlson, he even produced fewer DRS (Fielding Bible) than our old friend Lane Thomas who spent less than a fourth of the innings in center as Bellinger did. Even Adolis Garcia was better. And his OPS against RH pitching was sub 700 in a 1.5 WAR year. Our list of candidates for OF include O'Neill, Carlson, Nootbar, Burleson, Gomez, DeLuzio, Yepez, and could include Walker, Donovan and Gorman, who'd have a better chance cracking the outfield rotation than the infield. Like the list of starting pitchers, I'm not sure why we'd want to take on a project for the outfield with so many guys already on the 40 man looking for a shot to play. If he were still the 2017-2019 version of Bellinger, we couldn't afford him, but he just isn't. He's a guy you MIGHT go get if 6 or 7 of those on the roster currently were hurt or performed terribly in ST.
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Sorry, shouldn't have used the word "cap" in my payroll question.
One thing I am curious about is, if the trade DeJong and agree to pay some of his salary, what are the payroll implications? Does that payment appear on the Cardinals payroll or the receiving team? If it doesn't count towards the tax, does that open up more payroll room for next season? -
What Paul DeJong would cost them would go on the budget. If they're paying 2/3 of his salary, then it's 2/3 of his salary. If they have to cover all of it, it's all of it. Just the same as when they dealt Fowler and Leake and covered some of that contract. It's way different than deferred money. Deferred money has to be paid, by contract. The money the other team is covering is paid by them, not the Cardinals.
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