Hey gang, happy MLB trade deadline day. I'm here until a little before 2 p.m. unless plans change at the ballpark and I need to be there sooner. By now you have heard the big news. The Padres landed Juan Soto and Josh Bell. They paid a high price for it, too. LHP MacKenzie Gore. OF Robert Hassell III. SS C.J. Abrams. OF James Wood. RHP Jarlin Susana. And one more major leaguer. Some are saying it's Eric Hosmer but nothing official yet. Two of San Diego's top three prospects and three of its top 15. And then more. It's being referred to as one of the bigger deadline halls in trade-deadline history. But that's how good Soto is, and Josh Bell is no slouch. The Padres are all in, but that's not surprising. Said it from the start: It was going to be hard for a draft-and-develop team that cares about its farm system -- especially this loaded edition -- to beat the Padres for Soto if the Padres wanted him bad enough. Padres view their farm as trade chips more than anything else. Let's see how the Cardinals pivot. If they were willing to make competitive offers for Soto they can now pivot and improve pitching more than Quintana, which was a solid but not special add last night.
Two names that appeared to be sticking points, and we should know more throughout the day, were Dylan Carlson and top prospect Jordan Walker. The Cardinals did not seem interested in moving either, but certainly not both, and I don't blame them for that stance. Moving Carlson in this kind of trade did not make much sense to me, because Juan Soto can't play all outfield positions, and Carlson has been the team's best outfielder this season as Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader have struggled and/or been limited by injuries. Moving Walker would have hurt but would not have hurt the major league team as constructed.
The Nationals appear to be on his no-trade list, per reports. But let's not forget the obvious. Guys can get paid (well) to drop those. And he's repped by Boras, as is Soto, and let's not pretend the agent is not in the loop on this kind of stuff. I would imagine the wheels have been greased beforehand. Seems too far down the road to derail now.
I've explained my Carlson thinking. The moves made a the trade deadline, traditionally, are ones that help your team THIS season. I don't really see how trading your most productive and reliable outfielder this season helps that end. I can see the Cardinals putting a no-trade bubble around Walker. He's the new "it" guy. There always seems to be one. But, he does appear to have a higher ceiling than some of the guys who have been labeled as untouchable before. My hunch is that the Cardinals would have entertained moving Walker for Soto -- if the other parts of the package made sense and did not include Carlson -- but don't think that means he's potentially moving in any other deals now that the Soto one was off the table. The good news here should be that the Cardinals had to get uncomfortable building potential Soto trade packages. That forced them to decide who could be parted with. They can now use that information to go chase rotation help beyond Quintana, and I imagine they will. I don't think they're going to shut it down now that this is done. Deadline is not until 5 p.m. If they retreat and do nothing, well, that would be the big disappointment.
Boras has become the boogeyman for some. He's powerful. He has his hand in pretty much everything. He's a vocal pushback to the owners' narrative. I think that can be good for the game at times. He can't make teams change offers or accept or reject deals, though. And he works for the players, not the other way around, even though some players seem to forget that.
That's where I'm at. I'm not going to throw a big fit about Soto. It never felt like a slam dunk as much as some were determined to make it seem. I think that was reflected in the coverage here at the P-D, too. We kept it real. Now, if the Cardinals spent all of this time hovering around the Soto conversation and only wind up adding Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton? That will be disappointing. There are still arms out there who can help this team.
No one is going to move the needle like Soto, sure. But before the news broke that he was "available" no one was talking about the Cardinals needing an outfielder. It was all pitching. There can still be upgrades there. And there's plenty of time. And the market just got its biggest logjam out of the way.
Ideally they bump Andre Pallante back to the bullpen. They need another starter to do that. That's not to be viewed as Pallante not doing something right. He's been a season-saver. But he was also really successful in the bullpen and he's probably a better weapon there than Carlson -- if you get a starter who is an upgrade over Pallante. Another thing to keep in mind. Pallante is on pace to set career-highs in innings pitched. There is some concern about how that workload could add up down the stretch if he remains in rotation.
I get the argument. I do. But the same Twitter folks would be popping blood vessels two years from now if some of the pieces the Cardinals gave up were starring for the Nationals. And don't tell me it wouldn't be like that. There is recent history that proves it. Twitter is not how you run a team. When the Cardinals go up against the Padres for a deal that has to be powered by prospect talent surrendered -- the team that doesn't care much about prospects is going to probably win out on pushing it. The Padres are that kind of team. It hasn't helped them a ton in the postseason, for what it's worth. Maybe that changes now.
What happens if a meteor wipes us off the face of the Earth? I've never once gotten the impression Arenado will be looking to leave. Goldschmidt demanding a trade? That would be a true stunner. Maybe it's hard for some of you all to believe, but these guys like playing here. And they have a better chance of winning than they did at their previous NL stops.
I think you are guilty of underestimating Soto. A lineup with Soto, Goldschmidt and Arenado would have made the Cardinals look like one of those three-headed monsters you see doing damage in the postseason. It would have allowed other guys to become better than league-average hitters at the new lineup spots they slid into down ballot. If the "puke point" the Cardinals were up against was not the Padres, maybe it happens. As soon as it was clear the Padres were very in, it was reasonable to doubt the Cardinals chances in this. Some didn't get the memo.
No social media? I'm jealous.
He's got a .929 career OPS with runners in scoring position. Biggest thing is he gets walked. A lot. Since his 2018 debut no player has been walked more times than Soto. He's got 464 walks. Bryce Harper, an outfielder the Cardinals could have signed without giving up a single prospect, has been walked a second-most 404 times since then.
Doubtful. There are ways to persuade. Dollars. Also, he's a proud guy. Hard to see him blocking the deal if he knows the Padres want him gone.
Rumors galore. On to the pivot phase.
There is no real logjam for a bat that is ready these days. The DH makes it so. If the Cardinals or any team has a hitter who can help the offense, the DH makes it possible to get that bat to the majors and worry about defense on the fly. A 2023 ETA for Walker is not rushing things. That's the year many of the prospect projections have listed as his projected debut season.
It's not a Soto-to-Carlson comparison at all. It's the fact that trading him in a deal for Soto would water down the damage you can do with Soto. Soto is wicked talented, but he can't play multiple outfield spots at once. He can't play center. If you're going to make the win-now move of getting him, don't weaken the team he's joining. And if that means paying more in prospects who are not yet ready to help, so be it.
I like the Bumgarner idea more than most, but now that Soto is off the table and Quintana is in the bag, a bigger swing might be better. Pablo Lopez. Tyler Mahle. More upside there than MadBum, and I'm a MadBum believer.
If the Cardinals call it quits after this Soto stuff, sure. Maybe see what they do before the deadline first? I'd like to find out.
For what it's worth, City SC has made it clear they're going to prioritize development and players that fit their system, not chase the biggest contracts or name brands that move the needle. It's similar in a lot of ways to what the Cardinals and Blues talk. Some of the takes today are off. The Cardinals didn't get Soto. It was always going to be a longshot, no matter what you heard elsewhere. Let's see what the pivot is. STL dealt with Stan Kroenke. It knows ownership that doesn't care about fans. The DeWitts are not in that group. Come on.
