Yes, it's too premature to assume he is the real deal.
Sure, there are things to get excited about.
But it's a mistake to correlate those things with long-term success or failure.
It's also important to remember the team is analyzing things differently than just looking at the numbers.
Example: One player having better stats than another through 10 Grapefruit League games may tell us something. It also may not. Which player faced the better pitching? Which player was working on something at the plate -- an example: trying to get to two strikes to then work on a two-strike approach -- and which player was up there trying to hit like his spot on the team depended on it? These things matter.
How the numbers came about matter a lot more than the numbers. A guy who hits rockets all spring right into gloves might have impressed more than a guy who hit seeing-eye singles all spring.
The best way to analyze, I think, is to find the spots where performance -- not just numbers -- really matter.
The Cardinals have more of those spots right now than they have had in many recent springs.
They need to determine their closer. They have a wide-open left field. They have two veterans in Carpenter and Fowler who need to hit better.
Those are the places to drill down on, not wondering if one rough Adam Wainwright start is going to bounce him from the rotation; it won't.